In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at the weather for the week of Christmas.

AccuWeather's Christmas week outlook indicates that while much of the United States will experience mild and tranquil weather, the West Coast is expected to see stormy conditions. Forecast models show a cold front moving through the Northeast, bringing the possibility of snow and ice, particularly from the Northeast into New England and near the Great Lakes.

The forecast highlights a significant snow deficit in California, which is important for reservoir levels, though the Cascades are expected to receive snow soon. Differences between major weather models suggest some uncertainty in the timing and extent of cold air, but both agree on the risk of wintry precipitation in the Northeast around Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. The situation will be closely monitored as the week progresses.

Christmas week outlook

We're wrapping up the Arctic cold and we're looking ahead to Thanksgiving. How about Christmas week? That's the feed this morning. I'll tell you what, remember we talked about on Friday that that short wave that was rounding the bend was really going to strengthen. And I was pretty much convinced there was going to be a stripe of three to six inches of snow across parts of Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. I was right about that. Like I say, right church, wrong pew, right? I was close, but the snow ended up even a little heavier and a little farther north up in the east. It was right in here. You can see there was another stripe in here, but even Philadelphia I think had over three inches of snow. There was a heavy stripe of snow here, Lehigh Valley up in the eastern parts of Pennsylvania. And I'll tell you what, when you look across the country right now, there's pretty good snow depth here. Let me put it on full so you can see me. There it is. About 30% of the country covered by snow right now, but a lot of the north. This is a pretty big area of snow this early in the season across the north central United States. You're going to start whittling this snow away across Kentucky and certainly Virginia, but a healthy snowpack right now. Here's where we're lacking. This is a huge problem. We need the snow in California because I'll tell you what. When it comes to the water situation in California, yes you need rain, but it's the Sierra snow that dictates whether the reservoirs are filled or not. So we're running way behind, even in the Cascades, although I think the Cascades are going to get thumped by snow here over the next couple of days. But as I mentioned, I also want to look ahead to Christmas week, and as we talked about last week, right? Much different weather pattern coming here across the country. Let me show you where we are now with the upper level picture. So here's the core of the cold. This is the upper low that we are tracking. It was across the Yukon and Northwest Territories. It's right across the Northeast. Today, the coldest day of the year, of the season I should say, not year, of the season, as this is January cold with gusty winds. But watch what happens as we move forward here. If you look at upper low leaves by Tuesday morning, you already see the changes. What's going on here? You have what I call a zonal flow from west to east. All your cold air is locked up in here. Now, if you live in this area in here, across New England, New York State, up in here, you're going to continue to get shots of some very cold air moving forward. If you're in here across the southeast, especially, let's be careful, not too far south, let's say in here, you're going to be balmy moving forward here, all right, as all the cold's going to stay locked in. But you can see the weather pattern moving forward. There will be these little shots of cold air coming in. Here's a cold front arriving on Wednesday. Here's one arriving Thursday into Friday. And then there's another one arriving as we get into Sunday, Monday. One common thing you see is that you're not getting the flow across a large chunk of the country coming in out of the north-northwest. It's basically from west to east. That's why everybody's going to be mild. Let me show you the temperatures. I love this map because you can really see it here. Here's the cold today in the northeast. Watch how it starts relaxing. Here's a cold front coming. See that right in here? This is Wednesday. Into the lakes, into the northeast on Thursday. Here comes that next cold front Thursday into Friday. That has some pretty cold air with it. That moves into the midwest Thursday, Friday into the northeast. And then we're tracking the cold front as we get into Christmas week. Now for many Christmas week, the weather's going to be relatively tranquil for most. Not all though. All right, let me show you the weather pattern as we head into Christmas week. Here we go. And here we go. This is models showing a cold front coming through as we get into Monday. Now here's the difference in the modeling here. I want to show you this. Look at on Tuesday. This is 23rd. European, GFS, European, GFS. You see the difference? The GFS has a much stronger shot of cold air, a much bigger dip in the jet stream Tuesday than the European. Notice the difference here. European GFS, European GFS. Notice the difference? Then on Christmas Eve, European GFS. Both of them show that a cold front is coming through Tuesday into Wednesday. Some point Tuesday, there's a shot of cold air coming in. And then as we get into Christmas day, you've got this energy here. This is the European. This is the GFS. It's a little slower with, but that too has energy coming in from the west southwest with cold air in place across the northeast. That's the one area to watch for some snow and ice from the northeast into New England near the lakes. And then it does look as though with these dips in the jet stream, it's going to be stormy in the western United States. Let me show you the surface map and it becomes a little clearer. So let's jump ahead to Monday. So here's a cold front. Here it is. Monday morning, the European GFS, European GFS, both of them have a cold front that has come through the northeast. Let me draw it for you. This is the European. See it's come on through. A lot of people were talking about a Christmas Eve blowtorch. That's not going to work. It may get warmer for at least parts of the northeast. It will farther south. But that's the cold front. That's the European. The GFS is very similar. See it has the cold front through here as well. So both of the modeling, and they've been consistent, says, okay, there's a cold front coming Monday into Tuesday. Now what that does is that sets you up for the possibility of a storm at some point Christmas Eve because high pressure builds in. Here's the European. High pressure is in. And then you see with this energy coming with the west-southwest flow, you're going to try to attack the cold air with the west-southwest flow. Now the European may be a little too far north with this. Look at the pink. Look at the pink. It may be a little too far north. The GFS also shows it, but it's a little later. It would be the next day instead of Christmas Day, it would be Christmas Eve. So here's what to expect. Christmas week, storming along the west coast, and watch for the possibility of some snow and ice in these areas on Christmas Day. I'm going to keep an eye on it, and this is going to be our story on the feed all week. I'm going to keep an eye on it.

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Breakdown