Sonal Varma, Nomura's Chief Economist for India and Asia ex-Japan, says her base case remains for India to reach a trade deal with the U.S. Even if a deal does not happen, Nomura expects India's economy to grow "close to 7%" in 2026.

Delhi

Nomura analysts stated that while a trade agreement between India and the United States is facing delays and may not be finalized until 2026, they still consider such a deal likely in the future. The delays have already impacted India's labor-intensive export sectors, but the overall economic effect is expected to be manageable due to ongoing diversification and free trade agreement negotiations with other countries.

Despite the absence of a US trade deal, Nomura projects India's GDP growth in 2026 to remain close to 7 percent, supported by substantial policy easing and strong domestic demand. The Indian rupee is expected to face depreciation pressure in the near term, but could recover towards the end of 2026 as capital inflows return and the Reserve Bank of India rebuilds its foreign exchange reserves.

Nomura says India-U.S. trade deal 'still likely', remains base case

While it seems the Prime Minister Narendra Modi held another warm phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, it seems that we might not be and see a trade deal happen anytime soon, definitely possibly not by the end of this year and maybe deeper into 2026. If this continues to drag, how much of a headwind might this pose for the outlook of the Indian economy if a trade deal seems to get kicked further and further down the road? Yeah, JP, I think it would have an impact because some of the labor-intensive exporting communities, textiles, toys, furniture, I mean, they've already seen significant order cancellations and therefore the impact on them in terms of cash flow revenue will be seen. Now, in terms of the aggregate impact, though, we think it is manageable because the government is, you know, currently negotiating FTAs with many other countries and in some sectors, for instance, like marine products, we've already seen diversification help support exports. So for some of the other export categories, we do think diversification will help through the course of 2026. Our baseline is that a U.S. trade deal is still likely, but, you know, in the scenario where it does not happen, we would still think GDP growth in 2026 should be close to 7 percent because one thing we've seen this year has been substantial policy easing, whether it's fiscal easing, you know, credit macro-potential easing, RBI's policy easing, liquidity easing. So we think cyclically domestic demand in India can still pick up and offset some of the drag because of the U.S. tariffs. Just very quickly, Sonal, I do want to get your thoughts on where you see the rupee perhaps heading next year, especially after it crossed 90 to the U.S. dollar and with expectations that the RBI might be a bit gradual with their easing in 2026. What's Nomura's call with regards to where the currency might be middle and end of next year? Yeah, sure. So, I mean, our view is in the very near term, the pressure on INR towards depreciation will continue because the trade deal still remains elusive. And we've seen portfolio outflows on the equity side continue. So we are expecting dollar INR to depreciate towards 92 by March of 2026. But as we look out through 2026, we do think the current account deficit is fairly stable at 1 percent of GDP. And if you're right and the cyclical domestic indicators start to turn up, then equity inflows should come back. And there's also potential for bond index inclusion for India next year, which can also bring in more portfolio debt equity portfolio debt inflows next year. So by end of 2026, we think INR could be closer to 90, mainly because we think RBI will step in and rebuild its FX reserves as inflows pick up.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy proposed abandoning NATO ambitions in exchange for Western security guarantees during peace talks in Berlin. The move marks a major shift as Kyiv seeks to end the war with Russia without ceding territory.

Berlin

Ukraine Invasion

Ukraine offers to drop NATO bid at Berlin peace talks

Jimmy Lai’s trial, conducted without a jury, has been closely monitored by the U.S., Britain, the EU and political observers as a barometer of media freedom and judicial independence in Hong Kong.

Admiralty

Hong Kong tycoon Jimmy Lai found guilty of sedition, collusion

Rob Reiner and his wife, Michele, were found dead Sunday in their Los Angeles home, sources told CBS News, in what police called an apparent homicide. Rob Reiner was 78 and Michele Reiner was 68.

Brentwood

Director Rob Reiner and his wife found dead in their L.A. home

Far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast wins Chile's presidential run-off, after defeating his leftist opponent.

Santiago

Far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast wins Chile’s presidential election

The person of interest authorities took into custody in connection with the shooting at Brown University has been identified as Benjamin Erickson. He's a 24 year old, originally from Wisconsin.

Providence

Person of interest identified in Brown University shooting

Two alleged gunmen who killed 15 people at a Jewish celebration in Sydney's Bondi Beach were a father and son, police said on Monday, as Australia mourned victims of its worst gun violence in almost 30 years. This video contains graphic images.

Bondi Beach

Father and son behind Bondi mass shooting, Australian police say

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is prepared to renounce NATO membership if there are Western security guarantees. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and U.S. President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner are also present at the major Berlin meeting on the war in Ukraine.

Zelenskyy ready to drop NATO bid in exchange for security guarantees

Israel has described a deadly mass shooting at Sydney’s Bondi Beach as an attack on Jews, after gunmen opened fire during a Jewish holiday event, killing at least 11 people.

Council of the City of Sydney

Israel calls Bondi shooting attack on Jews, urges action on antisemitism

Two gunmen attacked a Hannukah celebration on a Sydney beach Sunday, killing at least 11 people in what Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called an act of antisemitism and terrorism.

Gunmen kill several at Jewish gathering in Sydney's Bondi Beach

Providence police have detained a "person of interest" in connection with the Brown University shooting that left two students dead and another nine people wounded, as the Ivy League school said it had lifted a shelter-in-place order for its campus in Rhode Island.

Police hold person of interest after Brown University shooting

Belarus has freed more than 120 political prisoners in a major thaw in relations with the United States. The releases came in return for Washington lifting sanctions on potash, a key source of revenue for Belarus.

Minsk

Belarus releases 123 prisoners as U.S. lifts sanctions

Washington was still under a state of emergency on Saturday after torrential rains swamped communities. Plus, snow and dangerous cold are falling on some in the Midwest and on the East Coast. Nicole Valdes has more from Washington state.

Deming

Washington under state emergency as rains ease

China's plans for a massive new embassy in the British capital were delayed until January. Construction plans have proven controversial, with some raising espionage concerns. Ramy Inocencio has more from London.

London

Controversial Chinese embassy construction in London delayed

A United Airlines jetliner lost one of its engines during liftoff from Washington's Dulles Airport bound for Tokyo.

Tokyo

United Airlines flight loses engine during liftoff, sparks brush fire

Thailand says there is no ceasefire with Cambodia, and its military will continue fighting until it faces no further threat. That's despite the US president's earlier announcement that both sides had agreed to stop their attacks. Villages along the border are largely empty, except for a handful of volunteer security guards.

Phnom Penh

Fighting continues along Thai-Cambodia border

U.S President Donald Trump has threatened potential land strikes on Venezuela to target an illegal narcotics trade. Trump says the drugs are arriving on U.S shores and that President Nicolas Maduro is behind it. Maduro has denied the claim.

Caracas

Washington considers Venezuela land assault

King Charles III, who shared his cancer diagnosis with the world in February 2024, announced Friday that he would be scaling back his treatment after his doctors have seen success. The monarch also pushed for people to get early screenings, saying, "Early diagnosis quite simply saves lives."

King Charles to reduce cancer treatments

Belarus has freed more than 100 political prisoners, including a Nobel Peace Prize winner, in exchange for sanction relief on Belarusian potash, a U.S. statement said on Saturday.

Belarus releases political prisoners as U.S. lifts some sanctions

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he visited troops fending off Russian advances near the embattled city of Kupiansk that Moscow claimed to have captured last month, which Kyiv denies.

Kup'yans'k

Zelenskyy visits troops as Ukraine claims gained ground near key city

In an audacious move, the EU has decided to indefinitely immobilize the Russian sovereign assets, pushing back against external pressure to release the funds before Moscow agrees to pay war reparations to Ukraine.

Brussels

EU locking in Russian assets for good

U.S. House Democrats released new images from the estate of the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein that feature U.S. President Donald Trump and other high-profile people previously linked to Epstein.

Washington

House Democrats release more Epstein estate photos

For the first time, Amnesty International has accused Hamas and its allies of committing crimes against humanity, following an investigation into the 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel. The organization found that 1,221 people were killed and said the mass killing of civilians amounted to extermination.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Amnesty accuses Hamas of 'crimes against humanity' for Oct. 7 attack

The “Architects of AI” were named Time's person of the year Thursday, with the magazine citing 2025 as when the potential of artificial intelligence “roared into view” with no turning back.

Rise of AI

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Message board website Reddit filed a lawsuit on Friday (December 12) asking Australia's High Court to overturn the country's social media ban for people under 16 as well as its inclusion in it, calling the law an infringement of free political expression.

Reddit sues to overturn Australian social media ban

As tensions rise with Venezuela, U.S. President Donald Trump said land operations could start "pretty soon." Sources tell CBS News the administration is also planning more tanker seizures.

Trump says Venezuela land operations could begin 'pretty soon'

One day after capturing an oil tanker off Venezuela's coast, the U.S. has sanctioned three of Nicolas Maduro's nephews, along with six other oil tankers.

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The EU has decided to keep the assets of the Russian Central Bank immobilised for the foreseeable future. The ban, which is based on a provision for economic emergencies, pushes back against external attempts to release the €210 billion in assets before Ukraine is compensated.

Moscow

EU triggers emergency clause to indefinitely immobilise Russian assets

Nobel Peace Prize laureate and Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said she planned to take her award back to Venezuela, but declined to say when she would return to her home country after leaving in great secrecy to receive the honor.

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Japanese authorities are assessing damage after a 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck northern Japan, followed by multiple aftershocks. In response, officials have issued a warning about the possibility of a megaquake, defined as a magnitude 8.0 or higher event.

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A Maryland judge has ordered the Trump administration to immediately release Kilmar Abrego Garcia from ICE custody. Abrego Garcia was wrongfully deported to El Salvador and was later detained for potential deportation to another country.

Breakdown