Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok shares what to expect across the county when transitioning into the winter season.

AccuWeather's lead long-range forecaster, Paul Pastelok, reports that the north-central and northwest United States are likely to experience a colder-than-average winter. Early snowfall is expected in high elevations of the Cascades and central Rockies, with the northern plains also seeing snow as the season progresses. The forecast is influenced by above-average sea surface temperatures and developing La Niña conditions, which could alter typical storm tracks and jet stream patterns. 

The coldest periods are anticipated from late January into February, with the potential for multiple waves of frigid air moving south from Canada. Above-average snowfall is expected early in the northwest and throughout the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with the possibility of late-season storms affecting areas from the south-central plains to the Appalachians. Snowfall forecasts remain uncertain, but similarities to the active and cold 2013-14 winter season have been noted.

Colder-than-average winter for north-central U.S.

Joining us now with what to expect across the country is AccuWeather's lead long range expert, Paul Pastelak. Paul, we want to know what is this transition going to be like? How are we all looking at this? And I know you've been dissecting a few things out there to start off with. Yeah, we have. And the transition for some folks, especially the eastern half of the nation, will be a little bit slower this year as we get into the winter season. Just a lack of cold, persistent cold in these areas. But it does look like the northern U.S. and also the northwest part of the nation should see an early transition. We're looking at a couple of factors that will be involved. And I want to show you here today about sea surface temperature anomalies and also La Nina, two of the many factors that we're looking at for this coming winter season. But the graphic you see right now on the screen is the sea surface temperature anomalies. What the waters are like compared to the historical average. And we see a lot of red, a lot of orange, a lot of yellow, a lot of above average sea surface temperature anomalies. And this could have a big impact on the driving upper level patterns that set up for the late fall and winter season, which reflects the storm track, as you see right here, the jet stream levels. La Nina is developing, okay, but we don't feel it's going to be officially a La Nina, but we'll see La Nina conditions. Those cooler waters are developing in the equatorial Pacific, but it affects the storm track. You have two, a northern storm track and a southern storm track. Those waters combined with the La Nina could have an impact. It may not be your typical La Nina setup. Those jet streams may be separated out farther away from each other, or the southern jet that brings in a lot of moisture may be weaker due to those water temperatures being so far above average right now. So that is something, Melissa, we're going to be watching very carefully going forward. All right. And we still have to get out of fall, right? So that transition time period is so pivotal because you have to start breaking on the jackets and all the winter gear. Tell us about that transition. Yeah, again, in the west, the northwest, it's mostly a little more action going on as far as the weather pattern. We're going to see some snow here in October in the above 9,000 feet in parts of the Cascades and central Rockies. Those places are going to see a little bit of snow. So it's starting a little bit early in these places, but the northern plains, they could also see a little bit of snow here before October is over with, but more so as you get into November. It's a little slower as you get to the south and east as far as the transition goes. All right. And to get snow, you need temperatures that are going to be cool. Who's going to have some of the luck with that? Well, I think you're going to see a lot of this either on the front side here in December, a little bit of cold shots coming down out of the northwest, but I'm worried, my team is worried about late January into February this year. There could be a shot of, or at least multiple shots of frigid weather coming down out of Canada, right smack into the middle of the country and setting up even into the southern plains. Remember last year, mid-January, we had that cold snap, went all the way to the Gulf Coast. We may see this a little bit later, but again, this coming season. All right. So where you have the cold, you can get the snow. We all want to know about snow. Who's going to be shoveling the most? Break that down for us. Yeah, we need the cold, right? We need the cold to get in here, but we don't want it too cold. It gets too dry. So we do have some areas that we're concerned about. This could expand as we get closer. Snow forecasting is very difficult this far out, but above average snowfall expected early, especially the first part of the winter season in the northwest. But it could be any time in the upper Midwest Great Lakes area. Look for lake effect machine really kick in hard in December, late November, December time period in the western Great Lakes and eastern Great Lakes later on. And then there could be this swath of snow. Now the normals are lower than average from Oklahoma to Kentucky compared to the north. But remember last year we had snow all the way down to the Gulf Coast, and we could see that a little bit farther north this time. But a couple of storms late season could kick out from the south central plains all the way to the Appalachians. All right. I think that was a question on a lot of folks here at Accuweather. We're like, can we see another gulf snow set up and probably less likely? It looks like we keep looking at 2013 14 winter season. A lot of similarities to what's going on right now. If that's the case, that season was very, very active, very cold. That's true. Big, I think, ice in Atlanta that year, if I recall correctly. Yes. All right. Well, that is Accuweather's long-range expert Paul Pastelok. Thanks again for joining us.

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