The World Trade Organization has raised its 2025 global trade growth forecast from 0.9% to 2.4%. The organization downgraded its forecast for 2026.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 2.4%, up from a previous estimate of 0.9%. This adjustment follows stronger-than-expected trade performance in the first half of the year, with world merchandise trade volume increasing by 4.9% year on year.

Significant growth was observed in trade between developing countries, particularly outside of China, and in AI-related goods, which saw a 20% year-on-year increase in value. The WTO also projects a 4.6% rise in services trade volume for 2025. However, the organization cautioned that the rapid growth in AI-related trade is expected to slow in 2026.

WTO raises 2025 global trade growth forecast

The World Trade Organization on Tuesday said it was sharply raising its forecast for global merchandise trade growth to 2.4% this year. The trade body had last set its prediction at 0.9% as recently as August. World merchandise trade volume growth came in stronger than expected in the first half of 2025, up 4.9% year on year. We now expect world merchandise trade volumes to expand by 2.4% this year. Among this year's solid features is trade between developing countries. South-South trade grew 8% year on year in value terms in the first half of 2025, compared to 6% for world trade overall. Our very rough estimates suggest South-South trade involving partners other than China is growing even faster, up around 9%. With respect to services trade, which continues to outpace trade in goods, the new report projects 4.6% growth in 2025 in volume terms. The organization also attributed the increasing merchandise trade to front-loaded imports in the United States over tariff sphere and AI-related purchases. The report finds that trade in AI-related goods was a key driver of the strong growth in the first half of 2025, with trade in these products rising 20% year on year in value terms, accounting for nearly half of year-on-year increase at the global level despite representing less than 10% of total merchandise trade. The rise in AI-related trade seems to have been fuelled by structural investments in digital infrastructure, from semiconductors to cloud servers. At the same time, the organization said this trend would slow down in 2026. Subs by www.zeoranger.co.uk

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