Sumedha Dasgupta, Senior Analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, explains why India will continue to buy Russian oil—and how that could complicate New Delhi's trade deal with the EU. She notes that the free trade agreement would require broader ratification in the European Parliament.

Delhi

Negotiations between India and the European Union over a trade deal have made progress, but India's ongoing imports of Russian crude oil remain a significant issue. The EU has sanctioned some Indian petroleum exports, as these are often refined from Russian crude, which has drawn scrutiny due to the ongoing conflict involving Russia.

India argues that its purchases are within the global price cap set by Western nations and are necessary to meet its energy and economic needs. While the issue is not expected to derail negotiations directly, it could become a point of contention during the ratification process in the European Parliament, where broader concerns about global trade disruptions may influence the outcome.

Why India's Russian oil purchases could complicate trade deal with EU

So, it seems there's been some progress made with regards to inking this trade deal between India and the EU. But one sticking point that comes to mind really is that of Russian crude oil. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, the EU has also sanctioned Indian petroleum exports because this is primarily built off of refined Russian crude that comes into India. It seems like it's very targeted towards some of these Russian crude imports that are coming to India that some say are actually fueling that war. Again, how big of a sticking point is this going to be? Because we've seen that it's been difficult for India to budge on weaning itself off of Russian crude because of how difficult it is. Yes, certainly. So, a couple of things have to be kept in mind. First of all, India has been buying Russian crude oil well within the global price cap. The global price cap has been set by the West, in fact. So, it's not actually flouting any global conventions in its purchase of Russian crude oil. Second, India is a major, major energy importer and requires that energy should be purchased competitively for its fiscal, its balance of payments needs, its inflation needs. Obviously, that is a very, very important thing for India to secure. So, which is the reason why India is kind of being so intransigent on giving up on Russian crude oil purchases. And these refined petroleum products from the crude oil that is purchased from Russia is actually going, a lot of it is going to the U.S. and the EU. So, while I don't really think that this is going to be kind of a leading point in negotiations, because I think by now it's very clear to many countries, especially the U.S. and the EU, that India will not give up on these Russian crude oil purchases, even though it may maybe reduce the quantity a little bit. But certainly, India is not moving away from Russia in any meaningful amount, at least in the near future. So, definitely, I think they're going to sort of cast that issue aside when they're working out the trade deal. But where that issue may actually come up is because the FDA needs ratification in the European Parliament. Now, if that is an issue with the broader EU, then that means that beyond the trade negotiators and their talks, this is something that could potentially build resistance against the FDA in the EU Parliament. That will, of course, need to be seen. It all depends, again, on the extent of disruption to global trade by that point of time. But I don't think in the negotiations this is going to be kind of a breaking point or that the EU is going to want to follow what things the U.S. President Donald Trump wants the EU to do. So, I think that that's really very unlikely.

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