Feroze Azeez, Deputy CEO of Anand Rathi Wealth, explains that foreign investors maintain a cautious stance towards Indian markets due to concerns about the 50% U.S. tariffs. He says the markets have remained resilient due to investment from domestic institutions and expects the NIFTY 50 to recover its peak value.

Mumbai

Foreign investors have been reducing their exposure to Indian equities, despite favorable global conditions such as rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar. The NIFTY index has experienced a modest correction of 5-6% over the past year, with foreign institutional investors (FIIs) selling approximately 1.4 trillion rupees worth of stocks. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have purchased around 5.5 trillion rupees during the same period, helping to stabilize the market.

While earnings for the NIFTY have grown by 11% over the last year, challenges such as reduced liquidity from FIIs, volatility in derivative markets, and global trade tensions have contributed to the cautious approach by foreign investors. Despite these headwinds, domestic investment has kept the market resilient, and there is optimism that the NIFTY could reach new highs within the current financial year.

Why foreign investors are dumping Indian stocks despite 'tailwinds'

You have these rate cuts from the Fed, a weakening dollar which is seen to boost emerging markets like India, but one might argue that year-to-date the equity market, or the NIFTY at least, if the NIFTY can be that benchmark, hasn't done as well as it has in previous years. And we've also heard that foreign funds are continuing to be a little bit cautious actually in India. Why do you think there's been a little bit of that, a little cooler appetite towards the Indian equities as compared to a couple of years ago, despite all of these possible tailwinds for the stock market there? Jimmy, if you look at last year's September, we were at the peak. We have now taken a one-year time correction. You're so right. Last September, we were higher than where we are today. We've seen a price correction of 5-6%. This is happening because FIIs have sold almost 1.4 trillion rupees. DIIs at the same time have bought 5.5 trillion rupees. Just before the September of 2024, we had a huge rally. So, where we had outperformed the global peers, now we underperformed the global peers. Earnings of NIFTY have gone up 11% over the last year. So, that's the great news. So, coming to your point of why have we seen such an abysmal rally over the last one year, I think the previous one year, previous to 2024, were very good. And liquidity has been a challenge from the FII side. Derivative markets have gone through some challenges. The trade war has created some panic. But if you look at how the markets have rebounded from 21,700, NIFTY touched 21,700 twice this year. Trump also gave us a lot of bad news, 50% tariffs and stuff. But still, the markets have been very resilient. That you would notice. They've operated in a very small range for the last three months in spite of a lot of global headwind. That's because of domestic monies. Last two months, we had more than 1.3 trillion rupees added by the domestic institutions. And that is not going anywhere. And that's the key message. So, we will trace back the peak in NIFTY. I would not be surprised if the odds are more than 95% that we will establish a larger value than we have ever seen on NIFTY in this financial year with 95% odds.

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Washington

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Windsor

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Breakdown