CFR's Rush Doshi also explains how the U.S. chips' policy may be supporting China's military modernization process.

Beijing

An analyst has emphasized that while China faces several economic challenges, including high debt levels, real estate issues, and demographic pressures, the most significant risk to the country's future is political succession. The analyst notes that the concentration of power under President Xi Jinping makes the transition of leadership a critical vulnerability, as history shows that such transitions in autocratic systems can be unstable and have far-reaching consequences.

The conversation also covers China's military modernization, highlighting the importance of advanced technologies such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence. These technologies are seen as crucial for both offensive cyber capabilities and the development of advanced weaponry, underscoring the strategic competition between China and the United States in these sectors.

While China faces many challenges, the single biggest one is who will succeed President Xi: Analyst

You do argue that China's vulnerability isn't just the economy, it's a political one, because a lot of the success of what's happening in China hinges on Xi staying in power. When do we start building in political risk into your China scenario? It's a really important point. You know, there's a lot of people talking about the various weaknesses in China's economy, and they are real. China has extremely high debt levels, extremely high local debt. There are some real estate challenges. We also know that there are problems with financing at the municipal level when it comes to continuing this industrial policy approach that they've pursued. There's demographic issues, too. All of this is real. But the biggest risk factor for China is exactly what you say. It is the question of political succession. That's often the case for autocracies, you know, governments that have just a handful of people running the show, or in the case of China, one person running the show. And if you look at China's history, every time that baton has been passed from one Chinese Communist Party leader to another, there's always been the risk that it drops. And often the military and other forces like security services have played an important role in ensuring the baton is passed on. But at some point it might drop, and that would have enormous impact on China's ability to remain as competitive, as formidable, and dynamic a technology and in other areas as it is today. This is the single biggest political risk for China, I think, in the period ahead. Yeah, and the reason why semiconductors and chips are such a fiery topic between the U.S. and China is obviously artificial intelligence and technological advancements, but it's also the idea of China's military modernization, and that is at least at the line coming out of Washington at the moment. Just talk to, I mean, I'm just coming off of the military parade that we were monitoring with Kristen, you and I yesterday throughout the show, and I was thinking about the chips angle. So just talk to us about what your understanding with your team about China's military modernization and how semiconductor piece is really the crucial part of that story. Yeah, and by the way, the parade was really something. Enormous capability was demonstrated at that parade, some of which was not really made public previously. We saw missile systems, we saw uncrewed vehicles that we really hadn't seen before. But what we didn't see, what would have been interesting to have at the parade would be a number of keyboards and computers, because one of the things that China has going for it is a really formidable offensive cyber force, right? And it's now a matter of public record. They have compromised the power, water, gas, telecom, and transportation infrastructure of countries around the world, including the United States. And artificial intelligence does provide certain offensive advantage, maybe some defensive advantage too, but a lot of offensive advantage if you're looking to find ways to exploit the critical infrastructure upon which tens of millions of people, hundreds of millions of people rely. I think the second point, though, is that this compute capability is extremely valuable for advanced precision-guided munitions, for autonomy, for Chinese weapons. The trajectory in warfare is greater range, greater precision, greater lethality, and greater autonomy. And semiconductors, advanced leading-edge ships, and the compute that they can provide can really take those weapons to the next level. They can also train autonomous systems to be more effective. And so it's not realistic to pretend that there's never going to be ships ending up in the PLA. It's going to happen. But the reality is, if you start selling this stuff en masse to China, it's going to happen a lot more easily.

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Washington

U.S. to send F-35 fighter jets to Puerto Rico amid Venezuela tensions

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Caracas

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Savannah

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Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Israel strikes Gaza City high-rise building, Hamas releases another hostage video

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Quito

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Kabul

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Paris

Ukraine Invasion

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Trump hosts Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates and other tech CEOs

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Milan

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Cambridge

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Moscow

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Kunar

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Lisbon

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Tel Aviv-Yafo

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Los Angeles

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Brussels

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