More than two years of conflict, a death toll ranging from 60,000 to 150,000 according to different sources, and a divided country: Sudan's civil war is among the deadliest conflicts in the world. But this year, the military dynamics have shifted.

Khartoum

Sudan's civil war, ongoing for more than two years, has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and significant suffering for civilians. Recently, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have regained control of Khartoum and launched major offensives, aided by new alliances and recruitment campaigns. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), however, continue to hold territory and have increased their capacity to strike using drones, extending the conflict to areas like Port Sudan.

While the SAF's advances have led to a decrease in civilian fatalities in some regions, the RSF remains responsible for the majority of attacks on civilians. Some displaced people have begun returning to calmer areas, but the conflict is ongoing, with fighting shifting to new parts of the country and no clear end in sight.

Where is the civil war in Sudan heading?

More than two years of civil war have ravaged Sudan, and killed tens of thousands. But while the conflict rages on, the situation on the battlefield has entered a new phase. The RSF had the upper hand in the conflict, especially around Khartoum, where they had besieged many military bases early on in the conflict. Things began to change around September of last year, and that's when we saw the Sudanese Armed Forces, the SAF, launch a major ground offensive in Khartoum. Khartoum returned under the control of the Sudanese Armed Forces in March this year. The SAF now continues on the offensive, notably due to a massive recruitment campaign and new alliances with various armed groups. But the Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, are still holding some ground. Before much of the conflict, the SAF had a monopoly of force in aerial combat. Since the RSF has gained access to further drones, this has enabled them to reach farther afield and strike SAF bases and infrastructure in areas like Port Sudan. So while the SAF have certainly gone on the offensive, there are some considerations here with the RSF additional capacity and these new alliances, which are really shaping the conflict in 2025. On the ground, the RSF are also known for directly attacking civilians. Although the SAF and armed groups also target the civilian population, the RSF accounts for two-thirds of all such incidents. Civilians have paid a horrific price for this war. Sudan has been the deadliest country in Africa for civilians each quarter since the war broke out. That said, in 2025, we have seen a drop in the number of civilian fatalities compared to last year, and much of that is due to the SAF takeover of certain areas like Khartoum and Al Jazeera, where previously the fighting did affect a number of civilians. And as contestation has decreased, so has the impact on civilians. Some who sought refuge abroad have even started returning to calmer areas like Khartoum. But the war is far from over. Observers note that the fighting is shifting to new different areas in the country. And an end to the violence is not yet in sight.

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