The European Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged today, but policymakers could keep the door open for further easing down the line. Today's meeting comes amid an uncertain global trade outlook and political turmoil in France.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to maintain its current interest rates, as policymakers face an uncertain global trade environment and political instability in France. The meeting will also see the release of updated growth and inflation forecasts, which may be revised downward for 2026. 

ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to address questions regarding France, with careful communication needed to avoid market volatility, especially concerning bond yields. While rate cuts are unlikely this year, markets are pricing in the possibility of lower rates by mid-2026. Analysts will also be watching for any signals about the ECB's stance on inflation and the potential impact on the bond market.

What to expect from the ECB today

In the meantime, let's turn our attention to the ECB. The Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting today, but policymakers could keep the door open for further easing down the line. This amid an uncertain global trade outlook and political turmoil in France, which could also impact growth and inflation in the eurozone. And Neto is joining us live this morning from the ground. And Neto, the expectation suggests that we might not see any sort of change in terms of rates today. But all eyes could also be on the fact that we're going to get a new growth and inflation forecasts. Yes, exactly. I mean, we get a new round of staff projection, but that's not the most exciting thing, I think. Everything Lagarde will say around France and she'll get questions around France will be crucial. And that will bring her back down her memory lane, because right after she took the job, she had her probably biggest communication problem when she was literally saying the ECB is not in the game of managing yields and that prompted Italian yields really to rise and that prompted Lagarde to do some crisis communications for the market. So this time around, she'll be really watching very carefully what she's going to say, because clearly she doesn't want to sound too hawkish. So in a way that might actually push yields even further or the spread between German and French yields even further out, but she also doesn't want to be in the game of saying we're going to bail out France, whatever it costs. So I guess striking the balance here will be the most tricky element of that press conference today for the ECB. Apart from that, as you rightly mentioned, we are going to get a new round of staff projection, which might see some downward revision for both growth and inflation for 2026. And the whole topic of rate cuts might actually be completely off the table for this year. You might see another one next year, at least the market is pricing in by June 2026, 16 basis points of lower rates. But of course, it will be also crucial to see what that all means for the bond market. Some analysts do expect that at least the lower end of the German yield curve could actually come down a little bit more because the market is in a way too hawkish when it comes to the yield development or the interest rate development here for the euro area. But all in all, the ECB, of course, looks very worrisome on inflation. We have seen a slight uptick again in last month's inflation reading and the whole concept of domestic inflation is crucial for the ECB. So again, we were all expecting this to be quite a boring meeting, but with the developments in France, with the developments also when it comes to the exchange rate, this will be again quite interesting to see how the ECB is actually positioning itself.

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