Oil held a gain after US President Donald Trump pushed for Russia to reach a swift truce with Ukraine or face potential economic penalties, raising concerns crude supplies from the OPEC+ producer could be disrupted. Bloomberg's Stephen Stapczynski breaks down the situation and what this means for oil markets.

Moscow

President Trump's decision to advance the deadline for Russia to enter truce negotiations has caused a notable reaction in the oil markets. The move has sparked concerns that, if no ceasefire is reached, the United States might impose secondary tariffs or restrictions on buyers of Russian oil, potentially reducing global supply and driving up prices.

Market participants remain uncertain about the specifics of these possible measures, as details have not been clarified. Meanwhile, OPEC Plus is set to meet to discuss the reintroduction of previously cut oil supplies, with expectations that additional barrels will return to the market by September. Analysts are divided on whether this will balance the market or lead to oversupply by the end of the year.

Trump's Russia deadline raises oil supply concerns

So Stephen, maybe just walk us through the steps. Why did the oil market react in such a fashion yesterday to this announcement that President Trump is bringing forward the window for the Russian president to come to the negotiating table for a truce? Why would that lead to a spike in the oil price? Well, I mean, before, you know, he had until September 2nd, basically, now he's pulling this forward. And the fears are over what Trump has threatened, and he's called secondary tariffs, basically. It's a view that if anyone is importing Russian oil or Russian energy, then he'll put some sort of restrictions on those buyers. So the fear, whether well-founded or not, is that any sort of action, if they're not able to make a ceasefire deal, which looks relatively unlikely with Ukraine, then Trump would put some restrictions on Russia that would curb the amount of oil coming from the country, the oil that can be bought, which would contract supply and lead to higher prices. That's the fear. Now, let's unpack that for just one moment, OK? What exactly does he mean by secondary tariffs? It's very unclear what's the mechanism that he would use. Would Trump really do something that would risk higher oil prices or risk oil deliveries to certain allies or countries that they're at the negotiating table with, like China? If there were higher oil prices, that would hurt him at home. That's higher gasoline prices at the pump. He does not like that at all. So I think while oil prices did rise, and there is a fear that Trump will do something that could restrict Russian oil on the market, there is also the view that this could be a taco sort of situation. Trump always chickens out. So how exactly will this play out? It's unclear. But because there are so few details, it's hard for people in the market to take a really bullish position on this at the moment. Yeah. Stephen, I've got about a minute, but I just want to remind viewers that on August the 3rd, OPEC Plus are holding another video conference to discuss whether to put back extra barrels to the market. Will all of this be factored in, do you think? Yeah, I mean, traders are expecting that OPEC Plus will basically add the rest of their supply cuts back into the market in September. That's what they're going to be deciding on in this meeting. They've been doing these kind of oversized output increases, and the market is now well expecting them to just finish all of those increases by September. There's this view that OPEC Plus thinks that the market is balanced, and by adding more supply it won't cause an oversupply. Now, analysts look at this differently. The IEA expects potentially a glut by the end of the year because of this. But let's see what OPEC Plus decides this weekend.

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