Strong onshore winds and large waves are expected to cause issues from the Carolinas up to New England, as AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish and Anna Azallion explain.

North Carolina

A low-pressure system has formed off the coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia, bringing onshore winds and causing coastal flooding. The storm is being fueled by warm ocean waters and is expected to intensify as it moves northward, with wave heights offshore potentially reaching up to 25 feet and wind gusts along the coast possibly reaching 80 miles per hour in some areas.

The main impact of the storm is expected to be widespread coastal inundation, particularly from New Jersey through Virginia Beach, where water levels could rise up to six feet above normal. Authorities advise caution due to the risk of flooded roads, power outages, and potential structural damage in affected coastal regions.

Tropical wind and rainstorm builds off the East Coast

You'll notice we've had a slew of these flood reports. This is because of onshore winds leading to a surge and coastal flooding. And you can see this area of low pressure beginning to spin up here off of the coast here of the Carolinas and Georgia. So as we loop the map, I'm gonna switch over to the infrared satellite loop and we're beginning to see a little bit more in the way of some spin here. There's flow from the South and Southwest. And again, there's a zone of low pressure beginning to get going here that we're gonna be watching through the evening and the night as that begins to pull north. So satellite radar combination, kind of a hybrid look at both the radar and satellite. The storm's going to be fueled by plenty of moisture. The warm water, I should say, is around 80 to 83 degrees. And the winds have been steadily blowing that warm water into the coastline here, leading to the surge and the coastal flooding. So when we take a look at the current wind speeds here, 14 mile per hour winds in Charleston, 15 mile per hour winds in Myrtle Beach, but the wave heights, because of the persistent nature of these winds are already in advance of this storm 10 to 13 feet if you go far enough offshore. So the wave heights are gonna be growing closer to 20 to 25 feet way offshore later in the storm's life cycle. Now, temperatures are dropping here. You can see some blue on the map. We're six degrees lower than we were yesterday at this hour in Charleston, South Carolina. And this is the result of that cold front, nine degree drop there in Panama City. So cooler air upstairs is now over some of this warm water. And that contrast, much colder air over warm water, we often see in the wintertime, help to breed nor'easters and winter storms. And the upper level disturbance that has drawn this pocket of cool air in will fizzle, but the coastal low is gonna form. Low level circulation around this low pressure system. Now, the winds we have plotted here are at around 20,000 feet up in the atmosphere. So you can see the steering flow will be shoving this northward up into the eastern part of North Carolina. So the disturbance, aloft, cool air aloft, encountering warm water, storm forms, it pulls north, and that stiff onshore wind becomes greater. We already have 10 to 13 foot wave heights with winds of 15 miles per hour. We can double the wind speed tomorrow with sustained winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour in some spots, gusts 30 to 40, and strong onshore winds will lead to coastal flooding. So the rain's gonna begin to pick up. Places near Myrtle Beach, you're gonna begin to see some rain tomorrow before daybreak. Raleigh, probably a dry morning, then rain in the afternoon, and that picks up here. So the center of circulation is still kind of elongated, but pulling north, east of Myrtle Beach, stiff onshore winds into eastern North Carolina tomorrow night, and there we are at 11 p.m. with the rain ramping up. So this storm has no official rating with the traditional hurricane wind scale from Saffir-Simpson, but it's a one on the AccuWeather Real Impact Scale for hurricanes, and the main driver for this, every storm is different, the main driver in this case is coastal inundation. So we're talking about coastal flooding, and that's gonna be the biggest issue here, not just in North Carolina, but all the way up into the Northeast, Anna. Yeah, and the timing really depends on your location, like we've been talking about the storm developing now, but we'll start to see those impacts tomorrow for North Carolina. For the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, it's really Sunday and Monday that we're talking about. Now, there's a couple factors, though, that are going to worsen conditions in the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. One of these has to do with what I'm showing you here with the atmospheric conditions. So first of all, some of the factors that led to our storm system developing off the Atlantic also created this dip in the jet stream. That is the steering flow for this storm, it's the reason that it's gonna be moving from South to North. Then we have another area of low pressure here, this one North of Michigan, it's really just bringing some showers to the Great Lakes region, not that big a deal. However, as it moves South and East, well, it interacts with our other area of low pressure and actually acts to strengthen it. The other thing going on is we have an area of high pressure to the North. And the thing that happens when we have a high pressure and low pressure relatively close to each other, there's a tight pressure gradient. All this means really is that we have a wind tunnel increasing that onshore flow in the areas highlighted in purple here on this map. What this means for you and the impacts is that in those areas, really stretching from New Jersey down through Virginia Beach, that's where some of our worst conditions are going to be. It's where we're more likely along the coast to have a wind gust up to 80 miles per hour, which already 40 to 60, think about that like a severe thunderstorm. You'd get some tree limbs down, you get some power lines down, you get some power outages. Even stronger wind gusts, a little bit more of an impact as far as possible damage. Just like Jeff was saying though, the coastal inundation, that is the focus. If you walk away from this thinking that storm's gonna do what? The one thing to remember, the storm is gonna cause coastal flooding. Widespread, one to three. However, from specifically Tom's River down through Virginia Beach, that's where the worst of the coastal flooding is likely to be. Again, it's where we likely get closer to our actual other local storm max of six feet of coastal inundation. That translates to coastal flooding, likely on some roads flooded for days, which already a reminder, you don't wanna try to drive through any flooded roadways. That causes some headaches. It can cause some damage to building structures depending on exactly where we see this flooding. That's not all though. Really, we're looking at high tide levels. So looking at Atlantic City, this is one of the areas we think some of the worst impacts are going to be. This is timed out with the timing of our high tide. So Sunday into Monday, we start to get these tides going well above our typical high tide, which is already about two and a half feet. But then we get closer to five to six. Well, we're adding on another foot to two feet of water beyond what we typically see. That's why we're talking about that coastal flooding.

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