By Sept. 11 or 12, Hurricane Gabrielle could be striking the Caribbean.

Charlotte Amalie

Meteorologists are tracking a tropical rainstorm in the Atlantic that could become the seventh named storm of the season. The system is currently hindered by dry air and wind shear, which are limiting its development, but gradual strengthening is still possible.

Forecasts suggest the storm could reach hurricane status if it overcomes these obstacles, potentially bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds to areas including the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and surrounding regions. AccuWeather warns of the risk of significant rainfall, with some locations possibly receiving up to 12 inches, raising concerns about mudslides and flooding. The outlook for the storm's path and intensity remains uncertain due to environmental factors.

Tropical rainstorm may strengthen into a hurricane

The next storm to form in the Atlantic is going to be the seventh named storm of the year. Today, again, we're running a little bit past the average start date for the seventh named storm, so we're a little behind average there. We've only had one hurricane so far. On average, our second hurricane would have been with us for about a week, week and a half now. And our second major hurricane typically forms around September 19th, so we're running a little behind the average for tropical storms and hurricanes, but we're not that far off at this point. And here is our disturbance that we're calling a tropical rainstorm. It is really battling some dry air right now, and it's moving westward. So again, Tortola and the British Virgin Islands out this way. We have a lot of dry air between our westbound tropical disturbance, tropical rainstorm, with just a little flicker of deep convection out there and the islands right now. So again, it has to overcome a lot of this dry air. And at this point, this is a 12-hour loop. You'll notice the westward extent of the moisture. It's not making a deep push into the dry air. The dry air is holding strong. This is kind of the opposite of what we saw when Aaron replaced the dry air that was in its path. There's also some wind shear, which is a little bit prohibitive for rapid development here in the short term. So there's a headwind and some strong winds here that are kind of just keeping things disheveled and disorganized. Now, with all that said, we do expect to still see some strengthening. We have slightly been hedging maybe a little slower, and there's perhaps a slight tendency for things to come a little farther south into the islands. But we have a long ways to go before we see even the current status of the storm become a tropical storm. That could happen later this weekend, and we may see a hurricane by around the middle of next week, early to mid-parts of next week. And this could conceivably, if it survives the dry air, survives the wind shear to the north, it could become a hurricane. And you can see the latest forecast from our team here at AccuWeather. We're looking at the potential for gusts of wind 100 plus miles per hour if this does indeed become a hurricane in areas around places near and north of Martinique and up into parts of the Virgin Islands. So heavy rainfall is going to be a big concern. San Juan, 4 to 8 inches. The BVI is also looking at a 4 to 8 inch forecast here. That will be a concern. AccuWeather local storm acts of potentially up to 12 inches with mudslides and so forth. So that's a concern. We've got to keep a close eye on this, the middle part of next week, mid to late next week with mudslides, heavy rain. But there are admittedly some big questions about how this is going to behave with that dry air in its path and some wind shear. So we do have a high risk. You can see we're going with a high risk of tropical rain and wind mid to latter parts of next week for the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Calabria and areas around Puerto Rico. A medium chance into Hispaniola and a low chance through the 19th of September farther west from Cuba into the eastern U.S. And again, that's some good news. That graphic there was from Aaron from a couple of weeks ago. Nothing quite like that. But here's Chico. Chico is again a Category 4 hurricane. Chico has been kind of fluctuating in intensity. Max sustained winds 130 miles per hour. Back up to 130. This is where it was about 48 hours ago. And we expect Chico to continue to move west. So again, it is now again a four. And this is going to become a tropical storm before brushing the Hawaiian Islands sometime next week. We're also tracking some moisture from former Hurricane Lorena into Texas.

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