On the peak day of hurricane season, the Atlantic is storm-free-a rare occurrence-yet AccuWeather meteorologists warn warm waters could fuel a dangerous late-season surge.

Chicago

AccuWeather experts report that while the first half of the Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet, the risk of significant storm activity remains high for the remainder of the season. Historical data shows that major hurricanes, such as Andrew in 1992 and Ian in 2022, have formed later in the season, with a notable surge in activity after the statistical peak in September.

Meteorologists are particularly concerned about current ocean heat content in the Gulf and western Caribbean, which is just below record levels. This could contribute to rapid intensification of storms, even late in the season. Residents are advised not to let their guard down, as several storms could still develop through November.

Second half hurricane season risks

Mhm. Statistically, september is the busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. So far this year, the first half has been quiet, but that can quickly change the surf still up in 1992. This season didn't roar until Hurricane Andrew formed in mid august, hitting Miami Dade County as a category five hurricane before slamming into Louisiana as a category three. In 2022, three hurricanes formed in november alone and Hurricane Ian, a category four devastated southwest florida in late september. And remember just last year after a slow start, the second half of the season surged. The switch flipped really quickly. Once we got into september, once we passed that statistical peak of the hurricane season, 2024 just lit right up and we saw many storms, many hurricanes during that year. And in fact, we saw eight hurricanes after september 1st in 2024. So it became a second half loaded season and I worry that this season could be much of the same. Accuweather experts warn we're entering a dangerous window. Ocean heat content in the gulf and western caribbean is just below record levels, possibly setting the stage for rapid intensification when storms do form even late in the hurricane season. We have to watch things very, very carefully. Last year we saw three named storms during the month of november and I worry that this season could be much of the same where we could see, you know, several storms potentially into the month of november. So we don't want people to let their guard down for Accuweather on Leslie Hudson reporting.

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