In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather Chief Video Meteorologist Bernie Rayno discusses a post-Christmas storm that will bring accumulating snow to parts of the I-95 corridor, with snow changing to sleet in Philadelphia, and likely a significant snowstorm to New York City and Long Island.

New York

A post-Christmas snowstorm is forecast to impact the I-95 corridor, with the most significant snowfall expected across southern New York, New York City, and Long Island. Forecast models indicate that New York City could receive three to six inches of snow, with the potential for up to ten inches, while Philadelphia is likely to see one to three inches before precipitation changes to sleet and rain.

The storm is driven by a dome of cold air moving south and energy from a West Coast storm, resulting in a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the region. Areas such as Boston are expected to receive mostly snow, while central Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey will see a transition from snow to sleet and rain.

Post-Christmas snowstorm for I-95 corridor

All right, we have a post-Christmas snowstorm coming to the I-95 corridor. Now, it may not be much of a snowstorm in Philadelphia. I do think you're going to get a couple of inches. You're going over the sleet. Where I do think there's going to be a snowstorm is going to be across the southern tier of New York, into New York City, and all of Long Island. I think it's all snow in Boston. The question is how much precipitation is going to get for you. Right now, I'm thinking about one to three inches, but let's go over this. This is the temperatures Friday morning. Look at this cold that's coming. In fact, let me show you this cold air that's coming Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, actually. Look at the cold coming south. Look at it pushing south. This is Christmas morning. This red line here is the 32-degree isotherm, a dome of fresh, cold air. That's one of the biggest ingredients. You can see where the cold air is really in, from northern New York, Pennsylvania, into Long Island and southern New England. That's where the cold is the most intense and deep. Let me show you the surface map here. I'm going to show you the European first. This is Friday morning. Look what's going on. Area of high pressure, south of James Bay. These black lines are isobars, lines of equal pressure. Look how they kink. This is showing you you're getting cold air to come all the way down into Virginia here. We have a fresh dome of cold air at the surface, aloft. We've got a piece of energy coming out of the West Coast storm. Here it is. It's coming across Minnesota, and it's going to dive southeast. Watch it dive southeast as we get into Friday. See it? Here comes the energy coming across Pennsylvania and New York State. The GFS, very similar. Here's the European, and you can see what's happening. You're getting winds on the southern side of that energy coming in out of the west-southwest, so the warm air is coming in from the southwest. You've got the cold air in place. You get clouds and precipitation. You'll notice the modeling showing you this. There it is. Look at the pinks. That's ice. That's sleet and freezing rain. Then you have the snow area, mostly snow, where you have the cold air at its intense area. Northeastern Pennsylvania, extreme northern New Jersey, southern tier of New York, Binghamton, Rochester, Syracuse, Utica, Binghamton, and in across Long Island. Also, the cold air is deep in southern New England. You may not have a lot of precipitation. That's why I'm thinking this is all snow for New York City. The question is how much precip is there. The European looks like a three to six inch band of snow that would go from roughly Rochester or Syracuse down toward all of Long Island. The GFS, the America model, is similar in the precipitation type. It just has more precipitation. It suggests that places like Philadelphia can get three or four inches, and New York City would be six to ten. I'm not ready to abandon that idea because you've got such a cold air mass to overrun. I could see our precipitation rates are heavier than what the European is showing. Now, I want to show you something. Yesterday I was showing you model soundings. I didn't explain it properly. I'm going to explain it this morning a little better. We're going to look at New York City and Philadelphia and look at the difference. First, New York City. This is Friday morning. This, you're looking at the temperature in red and the dew point temperature in green. You're looking at from the surface, which is down here, through the entire depth of the atmosphere, this is aloft. What you see is these lines here. This is the zero degree line or the freezing line. If your temperature and dew point is to the left of this line, you're all snow. If it's to the right, you're rain. That's how you read this. This is New York City. The precipitation starts Friday night. This is Friday night. Right here. Okay. You're precipitating here. Your temperature in red, dew point temperature close together. That means your atmosphere is saturated. You're precipitation, precipitating. Where's the freezing line? To the right. So everything's in here. This is all snow in New York City. That is at 1 a.m. Friday night. Let's go to 3 a.m. Here is the zero line and look at all of this. To the left of this freezing line, that's all snow. Then as we get into Saturday morning, still all snow. And then by midday, while the temperature and dew point temperature are to the left of the zero line, you're still freezing precipitation. You see how the dew point temperature and the temperature in red, they're becoming farther apart. It looks like a Y. See this? It looks like a Y. This is a problem too because this tells me this is freezing drizzle. So it's going to be icy right into Saturday morning. Now I want to show you the difference. This is New York City during the precipitation event. This is Philly. See Philly, all snow, but look at, it's getting closer and closer to the zero line. That's Friday night. Look at by Saturday morning, right here. Okay, there's late Friday night. You see how Philadelphia, unlike New York, here's your zero line. Some of this is in the above freezing. This is sleet, all right? And then as you go forward in Philadelphia by Saturday morning, now look what's going on. Here's your zero line and most of the temperature and dew point profile is above freezing. So in Philadelphia, I think you're getting at least one to three inches of snow. It goes over to sleet, then it goes over to rain. New York City, you're all snow. Just to show you what a sleet sounding looks like, I want to take you to State College. This is classic. This is State College. Watch this. Okay, this is Friday night. Look what's going on. See, here's your zero line and you see temperature and dew point, most of it is below freezing, but this area right here is above freezing. What does that mean? That means it's sleet. So in central Pennsylvania, no snow, very little. Little bit of snow that goes over to sleet. New York City, my call, three to six inches for you. I could see ten. I think Binghamton, Elmira, three to six. Once you get toward the Lehigh Valley, one to three inches of snow. Philadelphia is like that too. Central New Jersey, one to three inches of snow that goes over to sleet and ice. Northern New Jersey, you're like New York City and all of Long Island. It's all snow, three to six, with the potential for ten.

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