The Gulf Coast region of the U.S. can expect showers and thunderstorms moving in from the Gulf of America heading into this weekend, which can produce localized flash flooding and travel delays.

Louisiana

Meteorologists are observing a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico, similar to a recent tropical rainstorm that affected Louisiana. However, the likelihood of significant tropical development is low due to the system's proximity to land and persistent wind shear, which disrupts storm organization. Rainfall is expected to be localized, with some areas potentially receiving a few inches, but overall amounts are predicted to be less than previous events.

The broader outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season remains on track, with a neutral climate pattern currently in place and a possible transition to La Niña later in the season. This shift could create more favorable conditions for tropical development towards the end of the season, mirroring patterns observed in previous years.

Limited risk for late-July tropical development in the Gulf

There's always something to talk about this time of the year, although we're kind of hedging our bets against development over the next few days. So what's going on out there? Yeah, well, this time of year we really look close to home that term that we always talk about homegrown tropical development. A lot of times you're looking on the end of a cold front, looking for a little bit of spin to kind of initiate off of that. We saw that last week with our tropical rainstorm that we were tracking into Louisiana and we're tracking a similar feature right now. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving across the Gulf right now. Low chance of development and then way out in the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical wave coming across the Atlantic with a low chance of development on that guy. Alright, so our eyes drawn a little closer to home. As you mentioned it, you can find that swirl. It's kind of a disembodied circulation, not a very obvious one, but when you look at the satellite loop near the Gulf Coast, what jumps out to you? Yeah, I mean, similar to what we saw last week, I see a cluster of showers and thunderstorms trying to get organized, but the problem that we're dealing with here is that it's so much that it's so close to land, and so the fact that it's so close to shore. It really disrupts that circulation and kind of prevents development, which is certainly good news. There's also a lot of wind shear in this area as well, which is helping to keep this thing from getting organized again. We saw this last week happen with that tropical rainstorm that was moving through the area and then this time looks like much of the same thing. It has a brief window. I think tomorrow where it could try to organize before moving into the coast. You can see this kind of blow up of thunderstorms during the day tomorrow as it's approaching the Texas coast, but I think it's maybe a 10% chance that we would get a depression or low end tropical storm out of it. It just runs out of time here and actually it's going to be to Houston's benefit 100 for the first time of the year. Yesterday 99 today I believe is our forecast. We're dropping to 90 to 91 with the increased showers and cloud cover tomorrow, so impacts. So how much rain are we really looking at here? Yeah, it looks like maybe a couple of inches in spots. Not everyone will get a couple of inches. It's going to be pretty localized again. I think it's going to be less than what we saw with the last tropical rainstorm that we were tracking through this area where we had reports in in in Louisiana, four to eight inches. I think overall amounts will be less than that, but there could still be local amounts of 345 inches anywhere in this green highlighted area and big pictures. We zoom way out to kind of the seasonal perspective right now. And again, we throw a lot of data data and graphics out there sometimes. We're in the early part of the hurricane season, so there we have three separate pie charts on the left. It's neutral. We're not under an El Nino or La Nina. We're looking at the water temperatures off the equator near the equator in the Pacific. How do we expect this to evolve? And how could that impact things in the Atlantic Basin? Yeah, well, you can see the left pie chart all grayed out. That means right now we are 100% chance of being in a neutral pattern. We're there right now. Middle of the hurricane season, so we would say beginning of September. About a 75% chance we're still going to be in that neutral pattern. And then though, look at the right pie chart. You can see the blue area increasing. That's La Nina chance of a La Nina coming on late in the hurricane season. What that would do is it typically would allow for more favorable conditions for tropical development. Usually we see less wind shear overall during a La Nina event, so this is similar to what we saw last year where we saw La Nina conditions start at the end of the hurricane season and I think they named storms during the month of November so we could see much of the same, but this is the. Area that we're looking at this boxed region. You can see Hawaii there in the top center of your screen there, but but this boxed area. This is the El Nino region. So when we talk about El Nino, that's when this area is warmer than average and when it's a La Nina, it's cooler than average, so you would see more blue. But right now you can see kind of a mix of orange and blue in that area indicating more of a neutral pattern. Alright, so moving forward, we do expect things to ramp up quite a bit. We've had one impact so far. Three relatively short lived storms, but forecast still on track. Alex. Yeah, again, this is June and July. Early in the tropical season, we don't typically expect that much activity. The heart of the hurricane season is really the month of September into the beginning of October here, but much like what we saw last year, we could see this transition towards a La Nina late in the hurricane season. Look out for a potentially active end to the hurricane season. I could see several storms during the month of November. Usually November is a fairly quiet month with about one storm every two years or so, but last year I think we saw three storms, so look for an active end to the season all the way through. So that's why we are sticking to our numbers right now. We've seen three named storms so far, but we have a lot more to come during the hurricane season. I think Acuweather lead hurricane expert Alex to Silva. Alex, you do a great job. Thanks again for joining us here on Accuweather early.

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