AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno explains the factors setting up to form storms in the tropical waters.

Meteorological analysis indicates that a low-pressure system forming off the southeastern coast of the United States is unlikely to develop into a tropical system. The system is expected to move over warm waters for less than the 48 hours required to transition into a tropical storm, although it may still bring significant rain and wind to the mid-Atlantic region.

Attention is also being directed to the Caribbean, where sea surface temperatures are several degrees above average. This area could be more favorable for tropical development in the coming week, particularly as wind shear decreases and atmospheric conditions become more supportive.

Homegrown development this weekend

Now, I'm in my own little studio here for the forecast feed, where I break it all down and I show you all of the tools that I use, or at least some of them, to make a forecast. I want to talk about homegrown development. We may get that this weekend. I'll explain why. What is homegrown development? Take a look. It is the interaction between the jet stream and the tropics. You usually see this during the early part of the hurricane season, as you get in June and July, and then as you get into October and November. So as the jet stream comes south, what does it bring down into the tropical waters of the Caribbean and the Gulf? Upper lows and frontal boundaries, which can do what? Form storms. Now, once a storm forms, it's usually a cold-core storm. Why? Because the jet stream is not coming from the tropics, it's coming from northern latitudes. But if you can get that energy or low pressure to sit over the warm waters for a minimum of 48 hours, so two days at minimum, you can translate that storm into a tropical system. Okay, having said that, what about this weekend? We're talking about a tropical rain and wind storm. Well, take a look at the upper air pattern here as we go through today. You're getting this dip in the jet stream, this upper low, remember? That was, remember, what did we talk about? We're gonna go back to that. Upper lows, there it is, coming south. So interaction between the jet stream and the tropics and an upper low going over warm water, yes. Let's go back to that. Watch the energy as we go forward here. Okay, I'm gonna put this into motion. This is showing the energy coming east. Here it is, upper low, as we get into Friday night. You're starting to get the energy right in here, off the southeast coast of the United States, and then that energy lifts northward. So it produces a surface storm when, beginning Friday night, now it's very weak. It's around in here. Let's go to Saturday, late Friday night. There's the storm forming right there. Let's say Saturday morning. So the clock is ticking because this low pressure system off the Florida coast is going to be going where? Over the warm water of the Carolinas here. Let me show it to you really quick. So there's the warm waters. So this low pressure system forms here, and it'll be moving in the water temperatures of over 80 degrees. Now here's the key. This storm has to be over this warm water for a minimum of 48 hours to translate this storm into a tropical system. How does it do that? Well, the clock's ticking here. So here we are. Here we are Friday, Saturday morning, late Friday night. What happens? Well, it moves forward. Here we go. Here we go. Here we go. So we're about 24 hours. It's still off the Carolina coast, but watch what happens as we get into Sunday morning. So this would have to go to Monday morning, right? It's gone. Here it is by Sunday afternoon. It's in here, off the North Carolina, off the Virginia coast. What are water temperatures there? Let's take a look at them. A lot cooler. See, once you get into here, once you get into here, you lose that 80 degree waters. So to me, when you look at homegrown development, did we reach the checklist? The answer is no. You do not have this over the waters for 48 hours. That's why this, while it will have the feel of a tropical storm in the mid Atlantic, no doubt about that, with the impacts being quite severe, this is going to be a damaging storm. I don't think that this will meet the criteria for a tropical system. So you won't get any homegrown development. Now we're not done talking about homegrown development because we have problems in the Caribbean here. I've been talking about this for the last period of time here, because look at the water temperatures here across the Caribbean. These are the anomalies. What's the anomaly? It compares, it compares the current water temperatures to history. And what you're seeing here with these yellow, red and oranges, you're seeing water temperature anomalies about three to four degrees above the historical average. What does that mean? That means this water is super duper warm. You're looking at water temperatures in the middle to upper eighties. Okay. With that in mind, I want to go back. I want to go back to our modeling here because there is a little bit of a concern as we head toward next week. Here's why. The same dip in the jet stream that we're worried about producing our tropical rain and wind storm here may be able to spin something up in the Caribbean and the Gulf, because look what's going on. Look at the dip in the jet stream. You see it right in here. Look at that dip in the jet stream. Now this is Sunday evening. So you're bringing a frontal boundary far south and you're going to start getting showers and thunderstorms to be located in this area. Okay. What does the wind shear look like in this area? We have a product for that. Let me show it to you. It's right here. Okay. Now the wind shear rips storms apart, right? The way you see the dark colors, the reds, the yellows and oranges, you have a lot of wind shear. So you have a lot of wind shear in the Gulf, but you see this little pocket here, right in here around Jamaica and South of Cuba, there's low wind shear. What does that look like moving forward in the next week? Look how, Oh my goodness, by Tuesday and Wednesday, look at this. You have low wind shear. Now by this time you're dipping, the jet stream has left. See here it is Sunday. See how it leaves. But one wonders, do you have enough showers and thunderstorms going on in the Northern part of the Caribbean? Because if you do, there's low wind shear. Look at the light colors here. So again, I've showed this before, but we're going to have to keep an eye on this area. Homegrown development underneath that high pressure system as the trough leaves. That's a story in the feed.

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