In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at the weather for Christmas week.

Meteorologists are closely watching weather patterns leading up to Christmas Day, as models indicate a chance for snow and ice in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. While colder air will be in place, current weather systems are generally moisture-starved, limiting the potential for significant snowfall.

Forecast models differ on the likelihood and extent of precipitation, with the European model showing only minor ice and the American GFS model suggesting a stronger system that could bring snow and ice to areas such as Pennsylvania and possibly New York City. Forecasters will continue to monitor developments to determine if a 'sneaky snow' event will occur on Christmas Day.

Conjuring up a white Christmas

All right, we're going to take a look at Christmas week and the possibility of a sneaky snow for parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Christmas Day. It's going to be interesting to watch this setup as we go forward here. Now, number one story, as we've been talking about, is the Arctic air that's been placed has been replaced by a milder air mass across the country. Take a look at temperatures here this evening, here's all the cold air, once again across Canada. Now, there's a little front in here coming into the Northeast today, later today and tomorrow will be a little chillier, but again, most of the cold air across the North. There's going to be a stronger front arriving. This is the system that's coming into the Northwest today. This brings another shot of colder air into the Midwest. You can see it, here it is Thursday night, coming into Minneapolis, then we get into Friday morning, Chicago, Cleveland, eventually into Pittsburgh Friday afternoon, and then into the Northeast as we move into the weekend. Now, when you're looking for snow, you're looking for cold, right? Cold enough to snow here across the Northeast, but the pattern with these cold fronts are just not conducive to much snow. Let me explain. What happens is, and this is the cold front that's coming through Wednesday. See this big dip in the jet stream? This European model, here it comes, Thursday across the Midwest, Friday, then it lifts out and then you have another system on its heels by Friday. Let me show you that. Sorry about that. So, here it comes. Comes in the Midwest Thursday, Friday across the Northeast, you see the big dip in the jet stream, but see already by Saturday, you have another system on its heels and it's pretty far north. These northern tracks of these short waves means the Gulf is closed for business, so these systems don't have a lot of precipitation with it. The dips in the jet stream are just not far enough south to get any Gulf moisture, so they're moisture starved. This is another front that'll be coming on through. Here we go as we head toward the weekend. Here it comes. Swings through on Sunday. Then guess what? Behind that, another system arrives Monday into Tuesday. That swings through, right? And then we get on Christmas Eve and that's where things get a little interesting. But again, as we head toward the weekend, there will be another front coming through as we get into Sunday. Let me show it to you right here. Here comes the front. High pressure builds in for Monday, and if you're flying out Monday morning in any of the United States, for the most part, it should be good. The West Coast is going to be a little problematic as we're looking for rain and mountain snow. As we get into Tuesday, watch what happens here. This European model, the high pressure leaves. There's going to be a little impulse coming here Monday night into Tuesday. It's right here. See this? In here, you've got this northern little piece of energy coming in here, right here. There's the European model. This is Tuesday morning. There's the GFS. They both have it. Now what that's going to do is, that's going to produce a little spotty precipitation across New York State and Pennsylvania on Tuesday. That's the 23rd. Let me show it to you right here. All right, now with that, there could be a little bit of ice with this across New York State and Pennsylvania, Tuesday afternoon European, Tuesday afternoon GFS model. Both of them showing this little impulse coming across that could produce some spotty snow and ice. New York State, Pennsylvania, a little bit of snow in northern New England. I don't think it's a lot, but if you're doing any traveling, New York State, Pennsylvania, New England, on Tuesday there may be minor delays. Any frozen precipitation will stay north and west of the I-95 corridor. Now it gets a little intriguing though on Christmas Eve. Watch what happens. You get an area of high pressure coming on in, European, GFS, same thing. So what you're building is, you're building some cold air here from the mid-Atlantic into the northeast. Now, all modeling the last 10 days has been showing that there's some kind of, some kind of cold little system coming in from the west-southwest. Let me show you the temperature map on Tuesday. You can see what I mean. Right in here, there's this little, little cold air right there. You see that? This is Christmas Eve. You get this little dome of cold air. It's not super cold, but it's cold enough to snow. The question is then, okay, instead of your next upper level system being too far north that all the precipitation would be off to the north, could you get a system a little farther south? I talked about this yesterday, coming in across the southwest and in the southern plains. And if you do, you can attack this cold air in place and get some snow and ice on Christmas Day. Now, not that I want that, but I've been very, been wondering about that. That on Christmas Eve and mostly Christmas Day, where's the next shortwave coming? Is it coming up here across the U.S.-Canadian border, or is it coming off to the south? Well, I want to show you the modeling on Christmas Day. Very interesting. This is European. Doesn't really have much. Look at the GFS right here on Christmas Day. You see this European GFS. European doesn't have anything, a very weak system that would get buried to the south. The American model's interesting, though. It shows this, a little piece of energy coming in out of the west-southwest. Watch where it moves. See, this is what I've been looking for, wondering, right in there. All right, you see that? It's coming right across the Ohio Valley and into the northeast with the cold air mass in place. So, if that's right, then we're going to have a problem. European says it's a weak system. Christmas Eve, you see it, here it comes, right in here. You see a little area of ice and snow. Wouldn't be a big deal Christmas Day, because it's a weak system in the upper levels. The GFS, though, a little different. See, this is where there would be some sneaky snow, right in here. You see that? Christmas morning, there it is, with some snow and ice across parts of Pennsylvania. That says it tries to get into New York City, that there'd be some snow on Christmas Day, right in there. You see that? That's the American model. The European model says, nah, not much. It's a very weak system, maybe a little bit of ice across New York State and Pennsylvania, but no snow. The GFS says, well, this could be a tricky, tricky setup. So again, let's keep an eye on Christmas Day, upper levels. Do we have a weak piece of system, like the European, coming across the United States? Or is it like the GFS, a little stronger system, in which case, you get a sneaky snow and ice. That's what we're going to be following on the feed.

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