AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Sept. 18 to discuss the latest on the tropics.

Meteorologists have observed a notable increase in tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, marked by the recent formation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle. Despite the presence of strong wind shear and dry air, Gabrielle has maintained its circulation, though its intensification is expected to be gradual in the short term. 

Looking ahead, conditions in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf are forecast to become more favorable for tropical development. A tropical wave currently west of the Cabo Verde Islands is being monitored for potential development as it moves westward, with another wave expected to emerge from Africa soon. Experts emphasize that while immediate threats are limited, ongoing monitoring is necessary as the season progresses.

Activity starting to ramp up in the Atlantic Basin

Alex, finally the droughts over in the Atlantic Basin as Gabrielle formed yesterday caught me by surprise. I wasn't expecting that to happen but you know we've been talking about how conditions over the next couple days haven't been favorable for development and when we look at the structure of Gabrielle you could see why we made that statement. Yeah I was a little surprised that the storm was able to get organized yesterday with all that wind shear and all that dry air which is still around the storm as we speak right now really getting blasted from the west right now by pretty strong wind shear so all of that convection all of those showers and thunderstorms are located east of the center of circulation essentially the the swirl it's basically a naked swirl right now there's no showers or thunderstorms around the center of circulation right now but it's still maintaining a pretty strong at least circulation right now despite all of this dry air that you can see here with that with that orange and yellow color. Yeah and it's in an area of just where we've seen wind shear all year in the Atlantic north of 20 degrees north right along north of 20 degrees north you can see all of that dark purple and a lot of people ask us well Alex well what does wind shear do how does it weaken a tropical system? Yeah this is the analogy I love to use it's like a stack of pancakes so you picture a stack of pancakes and you want your stack of pancakes to stand nice and tall that's how tropical systems are they want their thunderstorms to go straight up into the atmosphere be nice and tall not disrupted but when we have wind shear which is the change in wind at different you know levels in the atmosphere it can push that stack of pancakes over and then they all fall on the ground so it's kind of like that with tropical systems where if you get that tilt those thunderstorms can't develop properly and then you don't have really an intensifying storm and and that's what we're seeing right now with Gabrielle and so that's why any intensification here in the short term is likely to be gradual I think by the time it gets closer to Bermuda the the conditions do get a little bit more favorable for development and it likely will become a hurricane but it should pass east of Bermuda. It was a couple of weeks ago Alex that me you and and the crystal ball meteorologist Joe Lumberg took a look at the longer range and decided you know the area to keep an eye on for development also will be in the Caribbean. Yeah again I think conditions should get a little bit more favorable in the western Caribbean and maybe far southern gulf here as we head towards the end of the month here and and we are actually tracking a tropical wave that could actually make it into that area so here's the area we're watching just west of the Cabo Verde island so well well away from the United States this is going to slowly move its way west I don't think it's going to develop until you know it gets into the Caribbean or at least that's when it would have a shot to develop it's too hostile I think right now where it's located but we have to watch it's going to kind of go incognito I think all the way through but then once it gets into the western Caribbean those conditions if it can survive that journey do get a little more favorable and so that's why we're out looking that potential this wouldn't be until late next week and into next weekend so far out. To put a button on this we do have a tropical wave coming off Africa by the way on Friday we're going to keep an eye on that as well Alex. Yeah that's the next one to come off should be coming off tomorrow morning or so this one you know might have slightly better conditions than this other wave that we just mentioned but conditions right now do favor it to make a turn to the north but again plenty of time to watch that one. AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

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