Oil fell for a second session as the market weighed a looming glut and the possibility for an end to the war in Gaza. Rachel Ziemba, Founder of Ziemba Insights explains the impact of President Trump's meeting with PM Netanyahu on oil.

Washington

Oil prices are currently being shaped by a combination of global supply factors and demand, particularly from China. The market remains well supplied, with OPEC+ signaling a continuation of unwinding production cuts and China actively stockpiling oil, although Chinese final demand appears somewhat soft. 

Geopolitical developments, including US and European actions on Russian and Iranian oil, are being closely watched but are not expected to have a significant immediate impact on supply. The US administration's tough rhetoric on Russian oil is tempered by the desire to keep prices low, and China is reportedly diversifying its oil imports, including a recent return to purchasing some US crude. Overall, Chinese demand remains a key factor in the outlook for oil prices.

Ziemba: Oil prices are reliant on Chinese demand

I know you keep a very close tab of geopolitical developments in the Middle East. So I'd love to hear your insight, your perspectives on what we got yesterday and whether you actually think this is a watershed moment. Thank you, Jumana. It's such a pleasure to be with you. I'm sorry you're in London, but another one of my favorite cities. I think this, we'll see whether this is a watershed moment for Palestine. For the oil market, and I hope that it is, I think it's still a tall order, right? A lot of asks for, and a lot of asks for the oil markets, I think it's less of an event. I think the oil markets are really watching what's happening with snapback on Iran, which was formally came into effect on Friday. That's likely not going to move markets much in the short term and still really watching what happens in the other big conflict with Russia and Ukraine. So I think those are where markets are looking. And then you have OPEC plus saying we'll continue to add. So I think all of this ends with a bit of a bearish, well-supplied market tilt right now in the markets. And that's why people are putting money into gold and some other commodities rather than oil. Yeah. Let me ask you about the price action oil, though, the last couple of days. I mean, we're down, you know, two, three percent. We were trading close to 70 on Friday, but have pulled back. Do you see that as anticipation into the OPEC plus supply decision this weekend? Or do you see it as the market unwinding some of the geopolitical risk premium? What do you think is going on? Yeah, I think where we are now is sort of where we were the middle of last week, right? We've gone back to this sort of upper mid 60s trading range that we've been in for for quite some time and I think we'll probably stay. The fact that we've had OPEC plus signaling that they might continue to unwind cuts. Now this is a new phase of cut unwinding, but involving the same countries that have been unwinding these cuts. And so I think it still looks supplied. The big thing I'm watching there, I think the market is struggling to process, is how strong Chinese demand will be. The big story out of the big meetings in Singapore was that China was stockpiling. Chinese final demand looked a little soft. And so I think there's also still some questions as we get towards the fall, as we get towards the new year, when demand is a little bit softer, will China keep stockpiling? And if oil prices move up above this trading range, we might see China pull back a little bit in this way. So far, they're still buying discounted oil wherever they can find it. And they're also tying up tankers in floating storage. And so that's something else we're watching. So let me ask you about that discounted oil, because President Trump's tone and rhetoric towards Russia has hardened significantly in the last couple of weeks. We saw that at the UN General Assembly last week. And we know that he's applying those extra tariffs on India as sort of a punishment for continuing to buy Russian oil. Do you see the US administration toughening up their stance on Russian production, Russian supplies, on countries that continue to buy Russian oil? And do you see it having a meaningful impact, ultimately, on the amount of oil that's available? My base case is that it won't be meaningful. Trump and his team are talking tough. We're also seeing the Europeans do some different steps to try to reduce their own purchases, particularly of natural gas, though they're waiting till 2027. Ultimately, I think, though, the fact that the Trump administration couched their willingness to be tougher on whether the Europeans join them in putting secondary sanctions on China and India makes me think this threat is a bit less credible. And we also have to weigh this against the fact that Trump wants oil to remain cheap and believes that cheaper oil would actually push Russia out of the war effort even more so than higher oil prices. So I think those two competing trends are going to be present. Now, Trump will continue to be tough on Iran. I know I shrugged off the snapback impact in and of itself as the Europeans reimpose sanctions that, in effect, haven't been meaningful for some time. But the US could do more unilateral measures. Now, you and Min Min just talked about the Trump-Xi meeting. I think we have to watch that for the oil markets as well. Reports suggest, I think maybe from your colleagues, that China is, again, buying a few cargos of US crude oil. If so, that would be the first time in about six months since the sort of April really extensive tariffs. So on the margins, you know, we could see China going back, diversifying a little bit. They're not buying the large volumes of US oil products and LNG that they were last year. But this might be a bit of a peace offering. So I think we see China likely to hedge their risks ahead.

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