After Humberto and Imelda, the tropics are fairly quiet again, but that may not last.

Florida

Meteorologists are tracking multiple weather systems across the North Atlantic, including remnants of former hurricanes and a tropical wave moving west from Africa. While a low-pressure area off the east coast of Florida is expected to bring heavy rain, wind shear is likely to prevent significant development in that region.

The tropical wave near Africa is being closely watched due to favorable moisture conditions, though wind shear could inhibit its development if it moves north. Forecast models suggest a 25% chance that this system could develop into a storm in the Caribbean within one to two weeks, while there is a higher likelihood it will move north and remain out at sea.

When could we see the next tropical storm in the Atlantic?

You can see a trough, some showers, kind of dotting the waters off to the east of Kiowa Island. But we moved the map east and we're dealing with some pretty robust showers and storms here with the tropical wave train. So that really has our attention as well. Big reset here on what's going on on the whole, the North Atlantic, again, north of the equator here we have former Hurricane Umberto, which is now being called Storm Amy by the UK Met Office. They named their winter storms with wind and rain. Former Hurricane Imelda, we're calling it a tropical rainstorm. Technically it's no longer tropical, it's cold core over that cold water of the North Atlantic. And then we have an area of low pressure spinning its wheels off the east side of Florida and the tropical wave that is moving west of Africa is really getting our attention. But overall, you'll notice, I wanted to point out the low level clouds here blowing east to west, those kind of almost gray low level clouds. And then you go upstairs where the clouds are taller. It's colder upstairs. So the infrared satellite shows with the brighter, more vivid colors, upper level clouds. So the clouds are kind of tracers in the atmosphere showing how the winds and the low levels versus upstairs are at odds with one another here off the east coast of Florida. So we're gonna see just limited opportunity for development here. I think wind shear is gonna probably keep this system in check and it's just a low chance of development there. Regardless, the disturbance will bring some heavy rain to parts of Florida and there's a helper low there in the central northern Gulf as well. Meanwhile, the tropical wave moving west of Africa, this one has plenty of moisture in its path. So there's no dry air that's gonna inhibit it. The only inhibition it may have would be wind shear if it drifts the least bit north. Look at the deep purple here, strong wind shear. This is the wind that kind of keeps systems disheveled and weak. Look at the protection we have off the east coast of the U.S. right now with wind shear. If it makes its way into the Caribbean, it would be staying south. So that's the only real path it has into the Caribbean. Again, staying south of the wind shear. You can see this particular model actually is in a process of kind of curving it northward. That would be an out to sea scenario. It would be steered, redirected away from the east coast. But if it stays farther south, there's your concern. A week to two weeks from now, we may be dealing with a storm festering in the Caribbean. About a 25% chance of that happening and about a 75% chance of it pulling north.

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