With Texas Republicans advancing their redistricting drive and California Democrats vowing to respond, FairVote Senior Fellow David Daley explains what’s potentially at stake in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.

Austin

Gerrymandering refers to the manipulation of electoral district boundaries to benefit a particular political party. In the United States, both major parties have used this tactic, but recent redistricting efforts in Texas have drawn attention due to their potential impact on the balance of power in Congress.

Experts note that the new Texas map could shift several seats in favor of Republicans, increasing their advantage in the House of Representatives. This process is seen as highly consequential, especially given the narrow margin between the two parties. Other states may follow suit, but Democrats have fewer opportunities to redraw districts in their favor, potentially leading to a significant Republican boost in upcoming elections.

What is gerrymandering?

Texas redistricting plans are a classic example of what is known as gerrymandering. So exactly what does that mean? Well, the Oxford Dictionary defines gerrymandering as redrawing constituency boundaries for political gain, redrawing to gain a particular seat, or more generally, it wins more seats than its opponent, a particular party. Well, now important to note that in the United States, both parties engage in gerrymandering, but Republicans have more openly embraced the process. So how can it impact elections? Well, take a look at these maps. They show how the 2024 election went based on the boundaries of the congressional districts around San Antonio and the Texas state capital of Austin, and how the vote would have gone based on the proposed map. Well, my next guest, David Daly, is a senior fellow at FairVote, a non-partisan group that advocates for better elections in the US. He's also author of the book Anti-Democratic Inside the Far-Right's 50-Year Plot to Control American Elections. He joins me now from Massachusetts. Just give me your initial response to what we've seen in Texas, sir. We are in the midst of a gerrymandering Armageddon this summer. Texas is going all out. They are going to grab an additional five seats. California is going to respond and put this before voters. All of this, of course, the backdrop is that Republicans only have a three-seat advantage in the race for the US House in the midterms. So every single seat that either party can grab is extraordinarily consequential on a congressional map that has become so largely non-competitive nationwide. That's right, and enormously consequential, consequently, forgive me, for Donald Trump at this point, who is applauding what happened in Texas. Let's just have a look at this. There are a few cities in Texas that are affected. The proposed map on the right here shows how the 2024 presidential election would have gone if this map had been in place. For our international viewers, just walk us through this process. I mean, what sort of impact can or is this likely to have at this point, as you look at things as they stand? This is likely to have a huge consequence. The House hangs on a three-seat margin between the two parties. Democrats need to win back the House if they want to have any chance at putting brakes on Donald Trump and the Republican power in the United States. And so what Texas is doing would push Republican advantage from three seats up to eight seats. They are likely to keep going in Ohio, in Indiana, Missouri, in Florida. If they want to continue after that, they have potential seats that they could draw in North Carolina, in Georgia, in Kentucky, in Tennessee, in Kansas. Democrats can make a move in California. The trouble is they have very few opportunities and targets. They just don't control complete power in enough states. So this is going to end up being a big Republican boost in the midterm elections before a single vote is actually cast.

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