AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Oct. 10 to discuss areas that could undergo tropical development in the coming days.

Meteorologists report an active period in the tropics, with recent storms Jerry and Karen drawing attention. Jerry, currently bringing heavy rain to the northern Leeward Islands, is not expected to become a hurricane due to strong wind shear and is forecasted to remain east of Bermuda, posing no threat to the United States. The Atlantic hurricane season has so far produced 11 named storms and four hurricanes, with three impacting the US coast. 

Attention is now turning to new tropical waves emerging from Africa. While the current wave has a low chance of significant development due to wind shear, another wave expected soon may have a better chance if it stays south of the wind shear zone. Meteorologists emphasize the need to monitor the Caribbean and Gulf closely, especially as warm waters and seasonal patterns could still lead to storm formation in these regions.

Watching the Caribbean, Gulf for tropical activity

All right. Joining us right now, Acua, the lead hurricane expert, meteorologist Alex DeSilva. And you know what, Alex? Overall, here we are in mid-October. And in a sense, it's been an active week in the tropics, hasn't it? Yeah, it certainly has, though. Of course, we had jerry form, you know, several days ago and it's coming through the islands right now. Of course, we just had Karen up in the northern Atlantic. And then, of course, we have the coastal storm that's going to be coming up the coast here this weekend into early next week. But you can see the two areas that we have highlighted there. Jerry still coming through the Caribbean right now, the northern Leeward Islands. And then Karen is almost off the map here, almost towards Greenland, it seems like. But it's a subtropical storm right now. All right. Let's take a look at Jerry. And, you know, we thought that Jerry had a shot of becoming the season's fifth hurricane. But we've had taken that forecast down. We're just going to keep it a storm and it should stay well east of Bermuda. It's battling a lot of wind shear right now, bringing some very heavy rain to the islands right now. But there's still an opportunity for it to become a hurricane east of Bermuda. But as of right now, we think the wind shear is going to be very strong over the storm. And we have lowered the forecast for Jerry. But like you said, no threat to the U.S. Well, that's been a story all season. Hasn't it been the wind shear across the Atlantic? In fact, the last two seasons, we really have battled a lot of wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. Yeah, some years you just have more wind shear than other years. And then this year, there's been a lot of wind shear, a little bit, you know, kind of more in the mid latitude. So as the storms have climbed to the north, they've really entered that area of wind shear that has really torn them apart or at least, you know, had them get weakened by that. But the season so far, pretty much on track overall. I mean, right. You can see the numbers here. We've got 11 named storms, four hurricanes. We'll have to see if Jerry gets there or not. Major hurricanes were right on track there and three impacts to the United States. We've had a couple that have grazed the coast that we still count in that category. But season's not over yet. At the beginning of the season, we forecasted three to six. That means we still have room for a couple more U.S. impacts for the rest of the season. Less next to storm names are Lorenzo and Melissa. Let's take a look at our tropical wave coming off Africa right now, Alex. Yeah, this is going to be the next thing to watch in the deep tropics here. This tropical wave is going to be coming west. It's going to have a chance to develop. We think it's low chance right now because you can see it's going to be climbing to the north. And so there's a lot of wind shear to the north. And so as that storm gains latitude, we think it's going to run into that and that should stifle some of its growth. So we might get a named storm out of it, but it's likely to be, you know, fairly slow at intensification if it develops at all. The next tropical wave, Alex, is intriguing. We think it's going to come off Africa early next week. But unlike this tropical wave, the next one may be a little different. Yeah, it could be. It could slide south of that wind shear like we were just talking about. There's a lot of wind shear once you get a little bit further to the north. And so if this this next tropical wave, if it can dodge some of that wind shear and stay far enough south, that's a way we could develop a storm down there. We're a long way out. We would be talking probably towards the end of next week when we would be looking at that. But we have to watch it. If it can sneak to the south, the Caribbean islands are going to have to watch things closely. And you can see how warm the water is in the Caribbean. So if that storm is able to get in there, you know, we may have to keep a close eye out for that. You know, there's this dip in the jet stream that's causing the storm right now, Alex. There's some indication that a little of that can break off. And then we may have to worry at some point, if not early next week. But as we go through this month of October, at some point, Alex, there's going to be a price to pay for all that warm water in the Caribbean and Gulf. Boy, we've been saying it for weeks now. We think something's going to happen down there. It hasn't yet. But again, we're getting into the time of the year when we really have to look closer to home, especially in late October and November. And I find it really hard to believe that we're going to have an entire hurricane season without something developing in the southern Gulf or western Caribbean. So we still have to watch this area very, very carefully, especially in the second half of October. Accu, with the lead hurricane expert Alex DeSilva, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

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