The US President says Russian troops would have captured the Ukrainian capital in hours in February 2022 had troops not got 'stuck in the mud'. War analysts tell a different story.

Kyiv

Donald Trump recently claimed to know why Russian troops failed to capture Kyiv at the start of the 2022 invasion, attributing the outcome to a Russian general's decision to avoid highways and move through farmland. However, expert accounts and military analyses indicate that Russia's failure was due to a combination of Ukraine's effective military resistance, Russian logistical and tactical errors, and specific obstacles such as the muddy terrain near the Irpin River.

Reports from the Institute for the Study of War and the Modern War Institute highlight that Russian forces did use highways to approach Kyiv and that Ukrainian efforts, including removing road signs and defending key locations like Hostomel airport, were crucial. The evidence suggests that Trump's account does not align with the established facts regarding the battle for Kyiv.

Verifying Trump's account of Russia's failed bid to seize Kyiv

Fact-checking Trump's claim about why Russia failed to capture Kyiv. Donald Trump has claimed to know why Russian troops failed to capture Kyiv during the first days of their invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. They would have been in Kyiv in four hours, going down the highway, but a Russian general made a brilliant decision to go through the farmland instead. We fact-checked Trump's claims by analysing expert accounts of what really happened during the first days of Russia's invasion in February 2022. We found that Russia's attempts to seize Kyiv were thwarted by a combination of Ukraine's military strategy and logistical and tactical errors on the Russian side. The mud in the valley of the Irpin River west of Kyiv did obstruct the movement of tanks, but alone would not have obstructed the Russian offensive. According to the Institute for the Study of War, determined and well-organised Ukrainian resistance around Kyiv played an important role in preventing the Russian military from advancing with speed and success. Meanwhile, Russian forces did use highways to reach the Ukrainian capital. According to an analysis by experts at the Modern War Institute, Russia's forces coming from the border with Belarus covered 150km of open road to reach Kyiv's outskirts during the first phase of the Battle of Kyiv in late February. The experts add that Russians used old maps, with Ukrainians also removing or painting over as many road signs as they could to deviate the Russian offensive. Russia's failure to capture Kyiv was also largely due to what happened in the air, particularly as Russia failed to gain control of the Hostomel airport 10km north of Kyiv. These expert analyses clearly contradict Trump's account of events.

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