AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, joined Bernie Rayno to discuss the recent revisions to AccuWeather's 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast.

AccuWeather meteorologists have issued a minor revision to their Atlantic hurricane season forecast. The updated outlook slightly lowers the predicted number of tropical storms from a range of 13–18 to 13–16, and reduces the hurricane count by one. This adjustment follows a midsummer lull that lasted a bit longer than initially expected.

Despite these changes, the forecasted number of U.S. impacts remains at three to six for the season, and experts anticipate a busier second half of the hurricane season. Current conditions show some areas of interest, particularly a tropical wave off Africa, but development is expected to be gradual due to ongoing wind shear and dry air in the Atlantic.

Updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season

It was back in March that we put out our hurricane forecast. We always do that during the late winter months as we prepare for the hurricane season here. And the decision was made between you and also the long-range team, meteorologist Paul Pastelok and Joe Lumberg. We have a little bit of a change for you. Yeah, a very minor change. I mean, at the end of the day, some of this just comes down to math. I mean, when we put the forecast out in March, we did think that there was going to be a midsummer lull. We predicted that way back in March. The midsummer lull has lasted maybe a week or two, a little bit longer than we may have thought way back in the springtime. So as a result, we just took the top end of the tropical storms down a little bit. Originally, we had 13 to 18. Now we have 13 to 16. So very minor change there. And for hurricanes, we just took the number down one. But the key, the most important thing is all the way on the right side of your screen here, we did not change the impacts to the United States. We still expect a busy second half of the season, and we are not changing the number of forecasted impacts to the United States, three to six total for the season. So far this season, really, the storm that was the biggest and the strongest and last to the longest was Aaron. That was our only hurricane. It was a major hurricane. But we have had storms that right now were near the historical average, numbering six. Yeah, I mean, Chantal was the other one that moved inland to the United States. So that also brought impacts to the Carolinas as well. We got very lucky with Aaron moving just offshore. Still brought direct impacts. It was such a large, large storm. So we still have seen some impacts so far in the United States. But I do expect that as we transition to that second half of the hurricane season, we've reached the peak. Yesterday, September 10th, was the statistical peak of the hurricane season. Now we're going down the other side of the slope right now. But I think that that second half of the season is going to be more active than the first half. While the statistical probability starts to go down, remember that is an average over decades of storms. And as we learned last year, things can stay very busy through the month of October. All right, Alex, let's take a look at what we're looking at right now. We have two areas that we're highlighting and a little bit of a change in the tropical Atlantic. Yeah, first of all, the area off the southeast coast is not too worried about this one. A lot of wind shear should rip anything that tries to form there apart. So not really concerned about that area. More concerned maybe about that next tropical wave coming off of Africa. We've got plenty, plenty of time to watch it. It's not even out over the Atlantic yet. So lots of time to watch it. Early indications are that it should turn away from land. But again, we are very far out. But that is the next thing on the list to watch here over the next week or so. You know, there's been a lot of dry air. But you know, you often mention this, that you get these other weak tropical waves that often precede a storm. And what they do is they kind of whittle away at hostile conditions. And you could see, while there's a lot of dry air, on the right-hand side of the screen off the west coast of Africa, you're starting to see a little more white and blue than what we've seen this week. Yeah, and that's exactly why we think that that tropical wave might have a better chance of developing here, because there's a few tropical waves that are out in front of that wave that might clear the way, prime the pump, essentially, for those tropical waves. But man, you can really still see a lot of wind shear in the basin right now. It's not ideal conditions for development. So even if this tropical wave is able to develop, I do think any development would likely be slow and gradual because there's still gonna be some dry air. And late in the month, though, we do really expect that dry air and wind shear to come down. But any development with that wave should be gradual. What I see here, and then we'll throw it to Ariella here, look at that dark purple north of the islands, the Lesser Antilles. That's a roadblock for anything coming toward the east coast of the United States.

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