Immigration has dominated the ruling UK Labour Party's annual conference, which wraps up on Wednesday. In the Welsh town of Caerphilly, an upcoming by-election is shaping up to be a major test for Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Caerphilly

The Labour Party, which has held the Welsh town of Caerphilly for over a century, is facing a significant challenge in the upcoming by-election. The right-wing Reform Party has launched an intensive campaign, focusing on anti-immigration messaging and capitalising on local dissatisfaction with Labour's performance. Some residents, motivated by concerns over migration and a desire for political change, are considering voting for the first time.

Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, is also gaining support by addressing local issues such as the potential closure of libraries and leisure centres. Despite disappointment with Labour, some voters remain hesitant to switch allegiance. Low voter turnout and apathy are seen as factors that could benefit Reform. A loss in Caerphilly would mark a historic setback for Labour and prompt significant reflection within the party.

UK Labour Party dominance under threat in key Welsh region

Caerphilly Castle has seen centuries of power struggles. Now this quiet Welsh town could be the backdrop for another shift in the political landscape. Labour has held Caerphilly like much of Wales for more than 100 years, but is set to lose next month's by-election. The right-wing anti-immigration Reform Party says it is throwing everything at it, with a new campaign office, a security guard and a candidate spreading the message that Labour has failed Wales. And for some here, it's working. What I want to see change, first of all, migrants, it's no good. I've never voted before, because I've never seen the point to vote before, but now I do see the point, because I think everything needs to change, to be honest. I think Labour's done no good, no, the Conservatives, it's time for reform, I believe. British Iraqi Adam Saeed's business is directly opposite Reform's new office. He says their anti-migrant rhetoric is causing division in the community. How can someone be there 20 years, 15 years, and they say, just going to send them back home? Where? The country which you have destroyed. Honestly, if he weren't being clearly, clearly, that's racism, nothing else, it's disgusting. Support for the Welsh Nationalist Party Plaid Cymru is also overtaking Labour here, capitalising on the threat of closure to local libraries and leisure centres. But while many are disappointed by Labour's performance, they refuse to flip to another party in anger. I work with a lot of Sri Lankans, a lot of Indians, and I'm concerned that if they're told to pack their bags and go, that there won't be much of a Britain left for everybody else. Labour will also have to battle apathy. Turnout here was just 44% at the last vote, and apathy could be Reform's biggest weapon. It's energising first-time voters and appealing to the younger generation. If Labour were to lose here in Caerphilly next month and be defeated in the Welsh elections in May, it would shake the Labour Party to its very foundations. Keir Starmer could be the first Labour leader to lose the Welsh electorate in more than a century, and the backlash could be fierce. Whatever the result here, Labour will be forced to reflect on why so many have abandoned the party. Charlie Angela, Al Jazeera, Caerphilly.

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