In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the latest on the tropics.

Meteorologists report that two tropical waves in the Atlantic are showing signs of development, with a high probability that both will become named storms. Forecast models, particularly the European model, indicate that conditions such as decreasing wind shear and reduced dry air will support the formation of these systems.

The first wave, located near the Florida coast, is expected to become a tropical depression or storm before the second wave, which may develop later. While the first system could approach the United States, it is more likely to remain offshore. The second wave is projected to stay out at sea, posing less concern for land areas.

Two named storms likely by the weekend

It's been pretty quiet in the Atlantic. Gabrielle was the warning shot, a major hurricane pulling away from Bermuda. And I do believe by this weekend, there is a high likelihood of two named storms in the general area here. Let me show you. And you know what I also like about the forecast feed? Not only do I get to show you some of the models I look like, but I control everything, even the camera. See, you don't see me. Well, you see me, you don't see me. You gotta love that. All right, let's show you the two tropical waves we're tracking here. Same thing as yesterday. This is the first one. This is the second one. We put it in the motion. You can see everything moving. Now, I show you the water vapor loop because there's a lot of dry air and wind shear around both of these systems right now, the dry air denoted by the yellow shading. But I think in time, conditions are going to be improving for both of these areas. Now, what I wanna show you now, and I did this for you on the feed yesterday. I wanna show you some of the computer modeling here, the American model and the European model, showing the different scenarios. And you can see how tricky this can be. They're tools to make the forecast. They don't make the forecast, but they help us make the forecast. Okay, this is the American model this evening. Here are the two waves, number one, number two. This is the European model, same thing. And you can tell they're tropical waves because you're looking at energy here in the atmosphere. And where you see the yellow and orange shading, that's where the energy or upward motion is. There's the European model, both have them. Okay, what happens? Let's jump ahead to Thursday. Here's what the modeling looks like here. This is the European, clearly showing two systems. Here's the first, here's the second. At this point, both are weak. The American model, what does that show? Both weak, so they're similar. Let's go to Friday. All right, here's the European model. Here's the first wave. You could see the yellow here. By this time, by this point, this looks like both of these will likely be tropical depressions if the European would verify. You see, here's number two, here's number one. You can see the dark red coloring showing you the waves. What does the American model do? It doesn't have either of them, really. Just very weak, and we go to Saturday. Here's the European model. One here, here's both of them. So there they have both of them. Notice what the American model does. This is the European. Weakens both of them here. Kind of hard to find them. So what the American model suggests is that they're too close to each other. They compete, and neither of them really form. The European model says, uh-uh, we're gonna have two storms. What do I believe? Have to tell ya, the European model is the superior model, and I believe it has the right answer, and I wanna show you why here. You know what? I think the dry air is gonna be out of there. What is not gonna be out of there is the wind shear for a little bit. I wanna show you the wind shear. Let's assume the European is right. Let's go to Thursday. So here we go. Here's wave number one, here's wave number two. What does the wind shear look like in both of these? Let's go to that. Here we go, wind shear. Very little wind shear where the first wave is. You see them? First wave is in here, near Hispaniola, no wind shear. The second wave, though, is in here, and there's a lot of wind shear here. Now that's Thursday. Let's go to Friday here. What does it look like? Friday, all right? Here's the first wave, north of the Bahamas. You can see the yellow and red. You can see reds here with the second wave. What does the wind shear look like to me? Here, let's take a look. Now, where you see the dark colors, we have wind shear. Where you see the no colors or blue, that's no wind shear. See, this first wave, no wind shear, this is still being dogged by some wind shear here by Friday. By Sunday, though, both those waves, here they are. Let's go to Saturday. Here they go. Here's where we go. This one, north of the Bahamas. This one, north of the islands. What does the wind shear look like by this point? Well, it's starting to decrease. I still say this wave is better located with this. I still think there's wind shear for that second wave. So, a little summing up forecast here for those waves. I think both of these have enough to become a named tropical storm. I just think the weekend, the second wave, it takes some time. The first wave is the one to watch. You know why? Because I think that will be a tropical depression or storm by the weekend, and it's off the Florida coast. Does it come in toward the United States? Not sure yet. It hasn't formed. I think it's more likely to stay offshore, but I think this is the one to watch. I think this does become a storm, and we have a moderate risk for that. The second wave does also become a storm, but I think this is gonna wait until Saturday or Sunday. I think the first wave is the first named storm. This will be the second named storm later in the weekend. This, though, stays out the feed. So, we have two storms, but only one we have to worry about for the United States, and that's the message in the feed.

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