AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on Sept. 15 to discuss the latest on the tropics.

Meteorologists report an unusually quiet period in the Atlantic, with no tropical systems since late August. A low-pressure system off the Carolina coast is being monitored, but it is not expected to develop into a tropical storm, though it will bring heavy rainfall to parts of North Carolina and Virginia.

Attention is focused on a tropical wave in the Atlantic, which is currently facing dry air and wind shear but is maintaining its structure. Forecasts suggest that environmental conditions may become more favorable for development as the system approaches the islands, with the most likely track taking it north of the islands. Another system, described as a 'low rider,' could potentially move into the Caribbean, where warm sea temperatures and decreasing wind shear could support further development.

Tropical wave may strengthen later this week

We go from Bermuda to Alex DaSilva, her lead hurricane expert this morning. And, you know, Alex, I was talking with Jeff Cornish last week as I dropped the cap there. I was talking with Jeff Cornish last week and he was going over the numbers. And this is very impressive that so far we have not had a tropical system since August 29th. And you have to go way back to get a stretch of inactivity this time of the year for this length in the Atlantic. Yeah, indeed you do. It's been certainly a very long time since we've seen a tropical system in the Atlantic. And again, way back to 1992. But that was the big year with Hurricane Andrew. So just because it's a quiet season now does not mean it's going to continue. One thing you were just telling me about with this low pressure system off the Carolina coast. We decided to put a low probability for tropical development. Boy, there's a lot of lightning with this system on the northern side. Yeah, there certainly is. It's going to move in sometime later on tonight or tomorrow morning. Most likely will not develop into a tropical system. But at the very least, it's going to bring some really heavy rainfall to portions of eastern North Carolina and portions of Virginia. All right. Here's the tropical wave we're going to keep an eye on here in the Atlantic. It's not quite halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. But what's impressive here is that you have a lot of reds and oranges and yellows in there. And it's consistent in its presentation. Yeah, indeed it is. It's dealing with a little bit of dry air right now. And most of the wind shear is to the north. But overall, it's maintaining itself right now. And you can see that pocket of moisture where it's at right now. A lot of that dry air is mainly west of where the storm is or where this cluster of showers and thunderstorms is located. There is a lot of shear to the north, however. Yeah, you can see that in the dark purple there. But note the little pocket between that system and the islands, that little area where you have a light purple. We think that that's going to be expanding northward and eventually that system gets into that area. Yeah, I think it does. And I think by the end of the week sometime, the environmental conditions get a lot more favorable for development here as it approaches the islands. The most most likely track would take it north of the islands, you know, sometime over the weekend or early next week. And then we have to watch Bermuda as well early next week, as it looks like a big dip in the jet stream should keep the storm deflected out to sea. Yeah, it's a big statement to make that we don't see any land falling hurricanes in the for the United States. Here we are in mid-September and we feel pretty strong that we won't see anything on at least in the early to middle part of next week. But this is the tropical wave you and I were talking about last week. It's the parting African. This one is a little more problematic. Yeah, it could be. This one could go a little bit lower, you know, in terms of latitude. Sometimes we call these low riders. So this one might not turn out to see it might just continue to move west. So if it can survive that journey with the sheer and dry air, we need to watch the Caribbean very closely and then we'll see how far west it can get. Yeah, because if anything can get in the Caribbean, this is something you and the team have highlighted. Boy, the water temperatures are super duper warm here. There's a lot of wind shear right now in the Caribbean, but that's forecast to back off in the in the coming week or so. Yeah. And then we have to watch if it can make it into the Western Caribbean or even into the Gulf. We have to really watch out because those water temperatures are still exceptionally warm. We really haven't had any tropical systems go through that region this entire year. So the waters are basically untouched. All right. Accuweather lead hurricane expert Alex De Silva. Thanks for breaking it down here on Accuweather Early.

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