AccuWeather meteorologists expect Gabrielle to strengthen into a hurricane by this coming Monday, but until then, it will be fighting dry air and wind shear.

South Dakota

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is currently struggling against unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic, including dry air and significant wind shear, which have limited its convective activity and development. Meteorologists note that while Gabrielle has recently shown signs of increased thunderstorm activity, its progress has been hindered by these environmental factors.

Forecasts indicate that Gabrielle may encounter an area of lower wind shear soon, which could allow it to intensify and potentially reach hurricane status. The storm is not expected to directly affect the United States, though Bermuda may experience rain, thunderstorms, and coastal hazards as Gabrielle moves northeast.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle battles unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic

Gabrielle is a fighting back after being held down by some dry air and wind. Yes, it is really when we look at the satellite picture of Gabrielle up until recently, if I said didn't have the circle here and I said, find Gabrielle in the Atlantic, you might not have been able to because even uh here at Accuweather, we were looking at it and we're like, there it is. Okay, I see it now. And the reason why we've had this area of low pressure, right? You can kind of see the circulation. But until recently, we didn't have any convection with this. We didn't have the thunderstorms we typically would see with a tropical storm. But now we're starting to see some of that convective activity as Gabrielle tries to fight against these unfavorable conditions. There's two things that it's really battling against. First, dry air. We look at the water vapor loop, the yellows, the oranges, that's our dry air. And we typically would not see this inside our bubble. It's been moving into this storm system and that is just really making it difficult for Gabrielle to continue on. But then also stronger wind shear. That's the darker purple. That's what Gabrielle does not want. And not only do we have the stronger wind shear where our storm system is, but we're tracking to the west northwest. So kind of generally speaking into this direction, maybe it's a little bit farther north than where Gabrielle is actually tracking either way. We have stronger wind shear in this area, right? So Gabrielle is just kind of going to stick with the status quo and keep fighting for the next couple of days or really 24 hours or so. But then we move into an area of lower wind shear starting late tomorrow through the weekend. That's when we think Gabrielle starts to really make some moves. And I say that this is what I mean. Look at our I path by monday. We think we get to hurricane status. Now the good news for us in the U. S. We're not talking about any direct impacts and really not even indirect impacts, maybe some rough seas, some rip currents. But overall Bermuda, you guys are the ones that need to be on alert for that influx of rain and thunderstorms, the stronger wind gusts and then of course the coastal hazards as we go really through monday and then the storm system continues on to the northeast.

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