In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno breaks down the latest on the tropics.

Meteorologists are closely tracking a tropical wave that has emerged off the coast of Africa, noting its unusually southern position compared to recent systems. While previous storms like Lorenzo have curved out to sea, this wave is being monitored for its potential to move into the Caribbean, where warm water temperatures could support further development if the system survives.

Forecasts from both American and European weather models suggest the tropical wave could enter the Caribbean, but its development is not guaranteed due to possible wind shear and its current low latitude. The probability of significant development remains low in the short term, but meteorologists emphasize the need to keep monitoring this system as it progresses.

Tracking a tropical wave, the "one to watch"

We have a new tropical storm in the Atlantic, but on the forecast feed, it's a tropical wave coming off Africa. The first wave, I can tell you this, I'm not saying it's coming to the United States, but I can tell you that it won't. And that's a tropical wave we talked about last week on the feed. We will talk about that in a second. Let me show you the satellite picture here this morning in the Atlantic. There it is. This is Lorenzo. More on that in a second. This is our tropical wave. One thing to notice, this is 15 degrees north right here, and this is 10 degrees north. Look how far south this is. This is very far south. All of these systems that have been coming off Africa have been coming in around 15 degrees north, and all of them, lately including Lorenzo, have done what? Curved out to sea. What is Lorenzo going to do? It's going to curve out to sea. Take a look at the AccuWeather eyepath with this. Now listen, you've got to keep an eye on these systems because it's going to do a loop to loop. Maybe it can come back, but right now the AccuWeather forecast shows that this will likely dissipate by Monday. Listen, we're going to keep an eye on it, but just to let you know how far east this is going to be. Here's Bermuda. Here's the east coast of the United States. So it's a storm that we're going to keep an eye on, but it's not a storm that certainly we're worried about in the short term. This is the system we're going to keep an eye on here. Here's this tropical wave coming off Africa. And again, this one's a little different than its predecessors because it's so far south. And as I mentioned, it is so far south that I'm worried it can get into the Caribbean. Now it's got some challenges to overcome this week, and there is certainly a possibility that it's so far south and it runs into a little bit of wind shear that it could be ripped apart. That's why when you look at the AccuWeather outlook for this storm, take a look at it. We just have a low probability. That's through the 18th. So that is as we head toward the weekend. It continues to move northward. I would not look for much of anything here, at least over the next couple of days. So the question is, will this develop or not? Well, what do we look for when we're looking for development? We look for three factors, warm water. We got that. That's our concern. Is there any dry air that would limit this system's ability to organize? Well, take a look at the water vapor loop here this morning. The answer is no. Let me put this into motion. So here's the tropical wave that we're tracking right in here. You see, look at this envelope, this whole envelope, almost all the way toward the islands, which are way over here, there's moisture. So there's not dry air that's going to limit it. I think the problem is, is why it's not going to develop much this week is it's going to stay so far south. Systems that stay south of 15 degrees north, down toward 10 degrees north, typically do not develop here. It's not going to be until later on in the week when it gains a little latitude. That's when we could see some development here. So what I want to do is I want to track this using the tools that I use on an everyday basis. I want to show you why I'm thinking what I'm thinking, and I'm thinking that this could be a problem, that this could be a system that gets into the Caribbean. Let me show you what I mean here. Let me put you in the double box here, and we'll start tomorrow evening so you can see where this wave is located. Here it is. I'm going to use the European model, but I'll show you the American model. You see all this red? This is it. Look how far south is. Let's track it here. That's Wednesday evening. Here it is. Now, we'll continue to track it. Where is it Friday evening? It's right in here. It's right in here. Now, you'll notice it has now moved a little farther north, but it's right in here. And then as we track it into Saturday, it's right here, north of South America. And then as we get into Sunday, where is it? It's east of the island. So it takes a track in here. What does the wind shear look like in those areas? It started off on Tuesday. Notice in here, you're going to see a continual area of light wind shear in this area. That's Tuesday evening. How about Wednesday evening? This is Wednesday at around 40,000 feet. All your wind shear is up in here with the darker colors. You see the whites and the light blues? This is all light wind shear. So the only thing that reason that this isn't developing, it's so far south. Look at the wind shear on Friday. It's right in this area, low wind shear. Let's go to Saturday. Where's the system here? Right here. Let's take you to Sunday. Where's the system? Let's say Monday morning, approaching the Windward Islands. What does the wind shear look like in there? It's light. And then you'll notice when you look in the Caribbean, what do you see in here? White light colors means low wind shear. Now, okay, assuming it survives, assuming it survives, it certainly looks as though it's going to be getting into the Caribbean. The question is, is where is it going? What I want to show you are two possibilities here. I want to show you the American model, and I want to show you the European model. Let's begin Tuesday evening. This is the American model that has it awfully far south, near Trinidad and Tobago. What does the American model do? The European model has it in the central Gulf, in the central Caribbean. You see it right here. So the American model has it down here. The European here has it here. But here's the important point. Both of them survive it and put it into the Caribbean. Why are we so concerned about the Caribbean? Really quickly, look at the water temperatures here. These are the anomalies. I mean, not only is it warm water, these anomalies compared to historical average are three to four degrees above historical average. So the water here is up middle to upper 80s. That is exceptionally warm water. Now the question is, is where does it go? If it gets in the Caribbean and if it survives, where does it go? It will all depend on this, this dip in the jet stream right here. Now the European model says this is too far to the north, and what happens is, is this system just goes on its merry way and it becomes a major hurricane, a major hurricane in the Caribbean. The American model suggests this dip in the jet stream is strong enough. What does it do with it? Watch the red pool northward, you see, into the Atlantic and out. Which is right? I'm not sure yet, but on the feed we want to let you know, this is the wave to watch and we will.

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