In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the latest in the tropics.

Meteorological analysis indicates that the Atlantic Basin, which has recently experienced a period of calm, is likely to become more active in the near future. Forecasters are watching a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa, with some models suggesting potential development, although the most accurate European model does not currently predict significant activity from this system. 

Attention is also focused on the Caribbean, where conditions may support the formation of low-pressure systems. Additionally, another tropical wave is expected to move off Africa soon, with the possibility of entering the Caribbean, an area where above-average water temperatures could enhance storm development. Meteorologists emphasize the need for continued monitoring as the situation evolves.

The Atlantic to go from tranquil to chaotic

We've had a break in the action in the Atlantic Basin. It has been quiet, quiet, quiet, but I think we're gonna go from tranquil to chaotic in the next 10 days to 14 days. Let me show you what we're watching here this morning. This tropical wave coming off Africa. We've been talking about that all week. Now, I do believe that this has a chance to develop here. Let me show you some of the modeling that we're looking at here. You see, when we're looking at the upper air charts here, this is on Sunday. So the tropical wave that's here by Sunday is right around in here. You see the yellow and orange shading here? That's the tropical wave that we're watching. Now, there's all kinds of modelings. In fact, there's more models in the field of meteorology than there are models walking on the runway in Paris, and they are helpful in determining the forecast. Now, this is the American model, and you could see the yellow and orange shading here. This is a tropical wave. It is interesting to note that the most accurate model, the European, doesn't have anything. Look at the difference. American, European, American, European, nothing. Now, which is right? Well, what I like to do is look at the wind shear in this area, where you see the dark yellows and reds, that's where you have wind shear. This tropical wave's gonna be moving in this area where you see a lot of blue. That tells me there's lower wind shear. So I do think that this has an opportunity to develop. So I'm leaning more toward the American model here. However, I'm not worried about this wave. You know why? Because in time, let's look at the American model as it continues to move to the east as we get into Tuesday. You see this? You see this dip in the jet stream in here? This is gonna force this system north into the Atlantic, which means this will have no impact on the United States. I've also been talking about the one area that we've been concerned about the entire time is this, the Caribbean. That's the area to monitor as we head toward the latter half of this month. And I think there's two opportunities. I think two opportunities for the possibility of development here. Let me change my modeling here, and let me show you what I'm looking at. Let's take a look at where we are as we head toward this weekend here. You see this dip in the jet stream right here across the southeast in here? What's gonna happen is as we move forward, this is Sunday evening. Let's go to Wednesday evening. That upper low is still here. You see the dip in the jet stream? Watch what happens as we head toward the end of the week. You're starting to get this, this dip in the jet stream into the Gulf. The concern is that you can get an area of low pressure to deform here. So that's an area to watch as we head into next weekend. And finally, there's gonna be another tropical wave we're gonna keep an eye on here. This is gonna be exiting the west coast of Africa the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Let me show it to you right here, right here. Okay, here it comes. This is the system right here. See this? Now, let me play it forward here as we move forward. Let me go full screen so you can see it a little better. So here's the system on Tuesday. You see the yellow, orange, and red? Follow its progression. Wednesday, Thursday, here it is in the central Atlantic. And then as we get into the end of the week, it starts approaching the islands right in here. This is Friday. Now, this seems correct to me that the upper high would steer this system toward the islands as we get in the next weekend. If this gets into the Caribbean, we have a problem. And I think there's a possibility that it can certainly do that. Why are we worried about that? Because take a look at the water temperatures in the Caribbean and the Gulf. They were running well above the historical average here. This is a lot of warm water. If this system finds its way into the Caribbean and into the Gulf, we're gonna have a huge problem here. So again, I wanna sum it up here. This is what we're looking at here moving forward, all right? What are we looking at? We're looking at two possibilities for development here. One in the Gulf as we get in the wind next weekend. This will be homegrown development, right? And then tracking that tropical wave. Again, it exits the West Coast of Africa Tuesday. If that enters the Caribbean, and we will be talking about next weekend into the following week, we could have some real problems from tranquil to chaotic in a snap of a finger.

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Breakdown