In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the latest on the tropics.

Meteorologists report an active period in the Atlantic tropics, with two named storms, Jerry and Karen, already observed. Forecast models indicate the potential for two additional storms, though one current tropical wave emerging from Africa is unlikely to develop or threaten the United States due to strong wind shear and a northward push from the jet stream.

Attention is shifting to another tropical wave expected to move off Africa, which could become more significant if it remains south of 15 degrees north and enters the Caribbean, where sea surface temperatures are notably above average. Additionally, meteorologists are watching a developing area in the southern Gulf of Mexico, as warm waters and atmospheric conditions could support further storm formation in the coming weeks.

Storms and rumors of storms in the Atlantic

It's been a busy week in the tropics, two named storms, Jerry and Karen, and I'll tell you what, I think there's the potential of two more as we head into next week here. All right, I want to show you though, this is what we're looking at here as far as the named storms so far this season. And then here's the next two, Lorenzo and our very own Melissa. And as I mentioned, there's a possibility that we can get two next week. Now, I don't think it's with this system though. This is our tropical wave coming off Africa right now. It looks pretty robust, doesn't it? As you have an area of rain and thunderstorms associated with it, however, moving forward, I do not believe this system has a pathway to the United States and I don't think it's going to develop. Now, this is what the modeling looks like on Saturday morning. Here it is. You see all this yellow and orange? That's energy here. That's the tropical wave. Watch as we move forward here. This is Sunday morning. How about into Tuesday morning? Here it is back in here in the central Atlantic, right in here. However, however, look at the wind shear it's going to be going through here. This is our wind shear product. Wherever you see the yellows and the reds, that's wind shear. So this system is going to be followed by wind shear along its path in the central Atlantic. Here it goes. Watch, let's do it again. There it is. There it is. There it is. There it is. Here it is Wednesday. The other thing you see, not only do you have wind shear, but you see what's happening? It's being forced to the north by this dip in the jet stream. So as I said, I don't think this system will develop. There's too much wind shear. And also, and also the other problem is, is that it is going to be dogged by wind shear. So small chance for development, even if it would develop, I don't think it'll have any pathway to the United States. However, we're not done as we head into next week. There's going to be this tropical wave. Let me show it to you moving forward. This is a tropical wave that's coming off the west coast of Africa as we head into Monday. Here it comes, right here. Here it is by Wednesday. Let me show you. It's right in here. All right. Now, this tropical wave, if it stays south of 15 degrees north, there's less wind shear right now. It's going to move eastward, move eastward. And then by the time we get into the next weekend, it's going to be right around in here. What does the wind shear look like? There is some wind shear next weekend, right in here across the, across the island. See that little area of green and it's coming in from the west. Now, if it could survive this wind shear and get into this area, then we're going to have some problems next week. Because as we get in the next week, Monday into Tuesday, look at this. There's virtually no wind shear by the time we get into Tuesday and Wednesday next week. So if, of the following week, not this week, but the following week, we're talking about October 21st. So if this tropical wave can survive the wind shear and get into the Caribbean, we're going to have some problems here. So I do think that this is the one to watch moving forward from the Atlantic here as we head into next week, right? If this stays south of 15 degrees north, it stays south of the wind shear, it gets into the Caribbean, then we could be looking at something here. Now the Caribbean is something we're still worried about. Look at these water temperatures as we head into the, into the Caribbean. You're looking at water temperatures. These are the anomalies of three to four degrees above historical average. So that puts these water temperatures in the middle to upper eighties. One thing quickly, Barry, what's our time? 30 seconds. All right. One thing I'm worried about next week, let's see if I can show you this quickly here. You've got this dip in the jet stream next week, right in here. You see this on Sunday, a piece of this is going to break off. You see this right in here. See that area across the Bay of Campeche that breaks off right there. Let's keep an eye on that. We know water temperatures are warm and I'd keep an eye on the Southern Gulf, middle part of next week, possibility of two storms. That's a story on the feed.

Officials say a deadly explosion at a military explosives facility in Tennessee killed multiple people, and others remain missing. CBS News' Shanelle Kaul reports.

McEwen

Deadly explosion at military explosives facility in Tennessee

A federal judge has temporarily blocked the deployment of National Guard troops anywhere in the state of Illinois. CBS News' Ian Lee reports.

Chicago

Judge temporarily blocks National Guard deployment to Illinois

The Israeli military has begun withdrawing troops following a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. The deal, brokered by the U.S. and Egypt, includes releasing hostages and a plan for Gaza's future governance.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Gaza ceasefire agreement has come into effect, Israeli military says

Venezuelan political opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has been awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. CBS News' Ramy Inocencio reports.

Stockholm

María Corina Machado wins Nobel Peace Prize

U.S. President Donald Trump will travel to Egypt and Israel this weekend to attend the signing of the Gaza peace agreement, address Israel's parliament and witness the release of hostages.

Washington

Trump to visit Middle East for Gaza peace deal signing

New York Attorney General Letitia James was indicted on one count of bank fraud and one count of giving false statements. She called the charges baseless and politically motivated, accusing President Donald Trump of using the Justice Department for revenge.

New York

NY Attorney General Letitia James indicted on federal fraud charges

China dramatically expanded its rare earths export controls on Thursday (October 9), adding five new elements and extra scrutiny for semiconductor users as Beijing tightens control over the sector ahead of talks between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

Beijing

China tightens rare earth export controls ahead of U.S. talks

A French court on Thursday (October 9) rejected the appeal of a former construction worker found guilty last year of the aggravated rape of Gisele Pelicot, and increased his prison sentence by a year to 10 years, his lawyer said

Paris

Sentence increased for man convicted of raping Gisele Pelicot

At least two people have died in a powerful 7.4 earthquake that struck the south east coast of the Philippines on Friday (October 10). Authorities had initially issued evacuation warnings following tsunami threats; however, these have now been lifted.

Davao Oriental

Philippines hit by 7.4 magnitude earthquake, at least two dead

Peru’s Congress has voted to impeach President Dina Boluarte on grounds of moral incapacity, plunging the country into fresh political turmoil after months of unrest.

Quito

Peru's President Dina Boluarte impeached

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that his government has approved a plan to release all remaining hostages in Gaza. The move is part of President Trump’s peace plan and could bring an end to the two-year conflict in the region.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

Israeli government approves framework to release hostages

New York Attorney General Letitia James has been indicted by a grand jury in Alexandria, Virginia. She faces two separate charges, one count of bank fraud and one count of false statements to a financial institution.

Alexandria

Federal grand jury indicts New York AG Letitia James

Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed an agreement on Thursday to cease fire and free Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, in the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump's initiative to end the two-year war in Gaza.

Trump says Israel hostages to be freed early next week

The U.S. Senate held its seventh round of votes Thursday on Democratic and Republican plans to fund and reopen the government, but once again the bills failed to pass.

Senate votes to reopen government fail again on 9th day of shutdown

The chemistry award is the third 2025 Nobel Prize to be announced this week. Three U.S. scientists won the award in chemistry for creating a new molecular structure.

U.S. scientist trio win Nobel Prize in chemistry

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of wanting to sow "chaos" in Ukraine by launching strikes on his country's energy grid and railway infrastructure, in comments published Thursday.

Kyiv

Ukraine Invasion

Zelenskyy says Russia aims to sow 'chaos' with energy strikes

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Wednesday (October 8) that Hamas has agreed to release hostages and Israel will pull back its troops in Gaza in the "first phase" of a peace deal. CBS News' Debora Patta reports.

Israel and Hamas agree to phase one of peace deal

Russia and China are sending high-level representatives to North Korea for celebrations honoring 80 years of the ruling party. CBS News' Ramy Inocencio reports.

Pyongyang

Russia, China send representatives to North Korea

The Toronto Blue Jays won Game 4 of their American League Division Series matchup against the New York Yankees to advance to the next round of the Major League Baseball playoffs.

Blue Jays defeat Yankees to advance to ALCS

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to major delays and staffing shortages at airports, raising safety concerns. The flight attendants’ union says reduced oversight and overworked crews are putting additional strain on the aviation system.

Aviation less safe during any government shutdown, union warns

Earlier this week, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said one of the reasons for staffing shortages at airports is that a growing number of air traffic controllers have been calling in sick. Those controllers don't know when they'll get their next paycheck amid the government shutdown.

Los Angeles International Airport

Why the government shutdown is playing into travel delays

President Trump says he might travel to the Middle East as soon as this weekend as Israel and Hamas continue indirect negotiations to end the war in Gaza. CBS News senior White House and political correspondent Ed O'Keefe has the details.

Cairo

Trump 'may' go to Egypt or Gaza amid Israel-Hamas peace

A 29-year-old Florida man has been arrested on suspicion of arson in connection with the deadly Palisades Fire that scorched parts of Los Angeles earlier this year, officials said Wednesday.

Los Angeles

Man arrested for allegedly starting Palisades Fire in California

Former FBI Director James Comey pleaded not guilty to two counts in federal court on Wednesday (October 8) after being indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice in September.

James Comey pleads not guilty to charges brought by Trump's DOJ

Some air traffic control staffing issues and bad weather are affecting flight delays as the government shutdown enters its eighth day. CBS News senior transportation correspondent Kris Van Cleave has more details.

Government shutdown, staffing issues lead to flight delays

Hamas’ lead negotiator says the group needs guarantees of a lasting peace as indirect talks with Israel to reach an agreement over the implementation of the first phase of Trump’s peace plan for Gaza enter the third day.

Sharm El-Sheikh

Hamas says it is ready to reach Gaza deal but needs 'real' guarantees

Sebastien Lecornu to hold two days of talks to try to shore up cross-party support for his collapsed government.

Outgoing French PM launches last bid to quell political crisis

Israel is pressing forward with its attacks across the Gaza Strip. 
Its forces have targeted displaced families in Khan Younis, killing a mother and her children. Several Palestinians have also been killed in a strike on Al Shati refugee camp, in Gaza City.

Israeli strikes intensify in Gaza despite ceasefire talks

Palestinian solidarity demonstrators have marched through Mexico and Chile’s capitals, demanding their governments sever diplomatic ties with Israel. The protests mark the second anniversary of Israel's war on Gaza.

Mexico City

Palestinian solidarity protests sweep Latin America

National Guard troops are preparing to be deployed to Chicago. Members of the Texas National Guard arrived just outside the city on Tuesday. The move is being criticized as an abuse of presidential authority.

Breakdown