Islamist group JNIM is pushing to assert political dominance in the Sahel region with a recent surge in deadly attacks reflecting a strategic shift that sees the al Qaeda affiliate moving towards its goal to impose Islamic rule across the region.

Abuja

A recent increase in deadly attacks by Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), an al Qaeda-linked group, has been reported across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Analysts say the group is shifting from rural guerrilla tactics to seeking control over urban centers, aiming to assert political dominance in the Sahel region. JNIM, formed in 2017 and led by Iyad Aghali, is estimated to have 6,000 to 7,000 fighters and has expanded its operations into northern Benin and Togo.

The group has imposed Sharia law in some areas and gained resources through raids, kidnappings, and local taxation. Despite efforts by military governments in the region, including support from Russian mercenaries, JNIM's influence continues to grow, leaving state capitals vulnerable and raising concerns about the group's long-term goal of establishing Islamic rule across West Africa.

Rise in al Qaeda attacks revives specter of West African Caliphate

A recent surge of attacks by an al-Qaida-linked group across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signals its growing ambition and influence, analysts and security experts have told Reuters. This June 1 assault on Mali's military base was one of more than a dozen deadly assaults in the region by Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin, or JNIM, in May and June. Data shows more than 850 people were killed in May alone. Experts verify the locations of the social media footage, but not the dates. However, they align with JNIM's claims of responsibility. The experts say the mounting attacks reflect a strategic shift by the group, from rural guerrilla tactics towards the control of urban centers and assertion of political dominance in the Sahel region. So who are these insurgents? JNIM is a coalition of Islamist groups formed in 2017. It's led by Iyad Aghali, who has pledged allegiance to al-Qaida. He's a veteran Mali and Tuareg militant wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity. His goal, analysts say, is to impose Islamic rule across the Sahel and extend influence into coastal West Africa, a landmass twice the size of Western Europe, with a population of around 430 million. The analysts told Reuters JNIM's battlefield tactics have grown increasingly sophisticated. The group has amassed substantial resources through repeated raids, cattle rustling, hijacking of merchandise, kidnappings and taxes on local communities, in exchange for what they say is protection. They have also managed to quell some intercommunal conflicts and imposed Sharia law, including dress codes and beard mandates, but have so far refrained from enforcing harsher penalties, such as amputations. A Western security source estimated JNIM has 6,000 to 7,000 fighters. That makes it the most powerful armed group in the region. A key to the group's recruitment drive is its outreach to marginalized communities, posing as their defender against state forces. According to the analysts, JNIM's endgame is clear to impose an Islamic regime governed by Sharia law. The repeated attacks have left the capitals of Mali and Burkina Faso in a fragile state. A takeover by the group has become a real threat. It has also expanded operations into northern Benin and Togo, aiming for access to the Gulf of Guinea. The military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger face a grim dilemma. Their legitimacy rests on promises to restore security, yet they continue to lose territory. While all three have turned to Russia for support, Russian mercenaries have also struggled to contain the insurgencies.

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