AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno takes a look at the latest on the tropics and the rare tranquility in the Atlantic.

Meteorologists have observed an unprecedented period of calm in the Atlantic Basin, with no storms recorded since late August, despite this being the peak of hurricane season. This level of inactivity has not been seen since 1992, when a similar lull occurred between major storms.

Currently, a robust tropical wave is being monitored in the central Atlantic. While conditions such as warm water and low wind shear later in the week could allow it to develop into a tropical depression or storm, forecast models indicate it is likely to be steered away from the United States. Another tropical wave faces challenges from dry air, but if it enters the Caribbean, it could potentially strengthen.

Rare tranquility in the Atlantic

unprecedented tranquility in the Atlantic Basin. We haven't seen this kind of tranquility in years. What do I mean? Take a look at this. We haven't had a storm since August 29th. It is now September 15th, during the heart of the hurricane season. Last time we saw that was 1992, where Andrew formed, and then we didn't have Bonnie until September 17th, and there's a chance we can eclipse that. Just to show you how rare that is, take a look at this. I mean, we're in the heart of the season right now, right in here, during that time from August 29th through September 15th. This is where you would climatologically see most of the storms. It is unprecedented to have it this quiet. Now, we're going to watch, though, a tropical wave. It is across the Atlantic right now. I want to show it to you right here. Here it is. It is halfway between. Here's Africa. Here's the lesser utilities. So it's right in between right now. It's a robust area of showers and thunderstorms. You see lots of reds, lots of yellows right now. It's consistent, which means it's holding its own. Now, water temperatures are warm enough. We look at two things, dry air and wind shear. Let's take a look at the dry air. Do you see any dry air coming into the system? I do not right now. In fact, when you watch this, you see the dry air being pushed away. Remember what happened with the last system a couple of weeks ago? Dry air came in, choked it off, and as a result, it did not develop. However, there are some wind shear problems here. You see this upper low in here? I'll draw it. This is producing wind shear on the northern side. That's what's stopping this from developing right now. Let's take a look at what's going to happen here. I want to show you the computer models here. So everything that you're looking at, and this is the reason I like the feed, because I'm showing you everything that I'm looking at right now. You can see here's the system located right here. No, I'm sorry, here, down in here. What does the wind shear look like right now? So here it is. Let's take a look at the wind shear. Right in here, here's the winds at about 40,000 feet. So the system's here. The wind shear on the northern edge is right in here. So that's what's stopping it. Let's go to Wednesday evening. So that's tomorrow morning. Let's go to Wednesday evening. There's the system. Where you see the red and the yellow, that's where the system is located here. So there it is. What does the wind shear look like? Winds at around 40,000 feet. There it is. And you see what's going on here? You see an outline of an upper high-pressure system. Low wind shear. So that tells me Wednesday, this is going to start to develop. Let's go to Friday. What does it look like here? This is the European model, right, by the way. What is really known in the meteorological field as the most accurate model in the world. Here it is, right in here. You see the little yellow and green? What does the wind shear look like there? Winds at 40,000 feet. What does it look like? Right underneath an upper high. That means low wind shear. That means this system is going to go. Now, it's going to take some time, no doubt about that. Let me show you the graphic here. This is what we're looking at as far as development is concerned with this system, right in here. So early this week, shouldn't do much. Later this week, this is when it's going to develop in here, probably of tropical depression. And then the weekend, I think it's a storm, should be a hurricane by early next week. But this dip in the jet stream will steer it away from the United States. That's good news. So we'll keep an eye on it here for you. Really quickly here, I want to take you to this tropical wave. I talked about this on Friday. Now, this is going to have some difficulties because of dry air. But if this system develops and can get where? Into the Caribbean, then we're going to have some problems. Why? Because of very warm water and low wind shear. And if this system survives, look out for the United States, we could have a problem. And that's the feed.

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