AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva discusses tropical activity and potential development.

AccuWeather meteorologists report a temporary lull in Atlantic hurricane activity, with current conditions marked by dry air and high wind shear suppressing storm development. However, experts anticipate a shift in atmospheric patterns that could increase the likelihood of tropical waves developing as the season progresses.

Attention is focused on the Western Caribbean and the southwestern Gulf, where lower wind shear and warm waters may support storm formation. Additionally, an unusually far south dip in the jet stream could lead to a stalled cold front, raising the possibility of a homegrown storm and wet conditions for parts of Florida and the Carolinas, regardless of whether the system gains tropical characteristics.

Late-August pattern may spark homegrown storm

I want to bring in our AccuWeather lead hurricane meteorologist Alex DaSilva. Alex, it was last week that we talked about behind Aaron we would likely get Ferdinand, but we'd go through a little period where at least in the Atlantic Basin where it would be a little bit more tranquil. Yeah, sometimes you can get these lulls in the middle of the hurricane season and it looks like we're going to be having one at least across the main development region end of this month and I think through probably just about the full first week of September. There's going to be a lot of sinking air across the Atlantic Basin, but then things are going to switch as we head towards that second week of September. There's going to be a lot of vertical motion I think and so we're going to have to watch those tropical waves very carefully. Could be like flipping a switch in the Atlantic at the end of the first week of September. But even though it's a little more tranquil, it doesn't mean that there's not anything to track and as we talked about all week, we'd get a second storm last week and that was Ferdinand and that developed into a storm on Saturday. Yeah, and the good news is it's trended away from Bermuda. A couple days ago we thought maybe it could get a little bit closer to potentially bring some impacts. The good news is it's trended further east. Nothing to worry about with this one. This one's going out to sea with no impacts. All right, across the rest of the Atlantic Basin, couple of things that we're watching. Two tropical waves off Africa and then there's that system, Alex, that we're still tracking moving across the Lesser Antilles this morning. Yeah, but look at these tropical waves. They don't look good at all. They look pretty sick out there. Lots of dry air is really hindering them right now. So like we just talked about, it doesn't look like there's going to be much going on with these. This one's coming through the islands right now. I don't think anything happens in the short term, but maybe, you know, as we go in towards the weekend, it's got a shot. But look at all the dry air in front, all this gold color and brown color. This is all dry air. But you can see Western Caribbean, you can see a little bit more, you know, moisture there. And a similar story with the windshear product here. You can see, you know, Eastern Caribbean, lots in Central Caribbean, too, lots of purple indicating high amounts of windshear. But look in the Western Caribbean, maybe the southwestern Gulf, maybe some lower windshear. So nothing happens in the short term. But we've got to at least keep a half eye out for it by the time it gets over to the Western Caribbean. Big dip in the eastern United States, of course, bringing in the cool conditions all the way down into the southeast, Alex. And when you get a big dip in the jet stream this far south, it's a little early in the year for that. That is always a little bit of a concern for us. Yeah, we always we always talk about homegrown development, and usually it's the bookends of the season, early in the season, late in the season. Not too often do you actually get it in the middle of the hurricane season. But like you said, we are getting that front to come unusually far south for this time of the year over the holiday weekend here. And we have a chance that, you know, the waters are very warm in this area. We could potentially see some development. Yeah. And with that, we do think there's a low pressure system that develops. Now, will it gain tropical characteristics? Maybe a little up in the air, but there's going to be some impacts with it. Yeah, regardless, it's going to be a stalled cold front that comes down there and you can get potentially some development. But either way, regardless of tropical development, it looks like it's going to be a pretty wet holiday weekend across portions of Florida and maybe coastal Carolinas as well. AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DiSilva. Alex, thanks for breaking it down here.

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