In this latest episode of the Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Damien Lodes breaks down exactly what meteorologists track when it comes to making severe weather forecasts.

Meteorologists rely on a range of tools and data sources to forecast severe weather. They gather information from weather balloons launched by the National Weather Service, which provide crucial data on temperature, wind, and moisture throughout the atmosphere. This data is then combined and analyzed using upper air charts and weather models to identify regions at risk for severe storms.

A key factor in predicting storm development is the temperature at the 700 millibar level, which can indicate whether a 'cap' will prevent or allow thunderstorms to grow. In the current forecast, the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles are being closely monitored for potential severe weather, though not all conditions necessary for major outbreaks are present. While some storms and hail are possible, the overall risk is not as high as on historically severe weather days.

How meteorologists make severe weather forecasts

Welcome to the forecast feed. This is where we give you a behind the scenes look at where we get our information for the forecast and how everything comes together to keep you informed for the weather that's moving in. And I'm going to highlight specifically the threat of severe weather as we head into the weekend. So overall, this is going to be the latest of what we are tracking for you. You can see that we are going to be watching out for a risk of severe weather here as we head into the weekend. You can see that this zone is going to be relatively large. It's skinny, but it's very large. It extends from the high plains of New Mexico all the way through even southern parts of Canada right there just over the border there in North Dakota. So overall, this is what we normally watch for whenever we are tracking severe weather chances. You can see that this is what we call an upper air chart. What happens is all across the country, the National Weather Service, they put up these little instrument packs on balloons and these balloons, they go all the way through the entire layer of the atmosphere and they feed back us data on temperatures, winds, dew points, all kinds of stuff that we need. So this is the overall, whenever we get all that information together from all those balloons from all across the country, we kind of piece them together kind of like a puzzle piece. And whenever that happens, we end up putting them all together and this is the result. So at about a couple of miles up in the atmosphere, we have this little zone right here. Anytime you see the colors on there, that's where we see the highest potential of storms. So for what we're tracking right now, we're watching for storms across the four corners, which is what we will see here as we head into this evening. But looking forward, one of the interesting things that we're going to be watching out for is that that picture that I just showed you right here, we are watching out for once again, that risk of severe weather here across parts of the four corners. But as we head into tomorrow, you can also see that we're going to be watching out for another risk of severe weather here from the four corners and especially the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. And it's going to be those areas that I primarily want to focus on for the risk of severe weather because a lot of the things that we need for severe weather to develop and expand and in some cases intensify are going to come together relatively well here as we head throughout the weekend. So I probably want to focus on this zone here that we're going to be tracking across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. We could see some strong to severe storms across this zone as we head into tomorrow. One of the things we're watching out for, and I guess if I was a chef, what I would call my secret sauce that I use, I love looking at the temperatures at the 700 millibar level. These are temperatures a couple thousand to a couple of miles up in the atmosphere. And the reason why this is so important is because the temperatures at this layer, at this level of the atmosphere, I should say, play a big important, like it's very important to storms that they're either going to expand or if they're going to pretty much collapse on themselves. If you've ever heard the term, the cap, as far as preventing severe weather from developing, that cap is normally at 700 millibars and the cap is normally a layer of warm air that prevents thunderstorms from growing. So that's what we're looking at right there. So if you normally want to see a strong cap, you want to see temperatures in the double digits. Well, as you can see here across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, temperatures are going to be cooler than that. So it looks like thunderstorms will be capable of going. And whenever you look at what we call the supercell composite, this is the rate or the weather models interpretation of just what we're looking at as far as the likelihood of severe weather. Yes, there will be a chance of that here across this region. But the one thing I also want to point out, I talked about those balloons that go up in the atmosphere. This is kind of, this is what the values look like whenever they come back in. These balloons, they're tracking everything from pressure. Once again, there's temperatures, all kinds of things. And whenever we get all those things, we get a vertical profile of the atmosphere. And this is the vertical profile of one of the worst severe weather days we've ever had in the history of the United States. This is from May 3rd, 1999 from Norman, Oklahoma, which is a storm that I know very well actually went through that storm. But whenever you look at this, this is the kind of forecast that we don't want to see. And you look at the forecast that we're tracking across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, nothing like that. So it does look like we'll see some showers, possibly some rumbles of thunder, maybe even some small hail because the high plains across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle, it doesn't take a whole lot for hail to produce. So we will be watching out for that. But as of right now, from what we are tracking with everything, overall, it looks like that, yes, we will be tracking a risk of severe weather here across the plains. But from everything I just showed you, as far as what we are tracking specifically, there are some ingredients there. Going back to the chef metaphor, there are some ingredients there, but not all the ingredients to make, let's say, a five course meal.

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