Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem claimed earlier in August that 1.6 million immigrants without legal status have left the U.S. since January. But is that figure accurate? CBS News Confirmed data journalist Julia Ingram dug into the numbers.

California

Homeland Security Secretary Christine Ohm recently stated that 1.6 million undocumented immigrants have left the United States since January, attributing the decline in part to government warnings about arrest or deportation. However, CBS News reviewed government data and found that only 163,000 people had been deported or self-deported in the first six months of the current administration.

The 1.6 million figure cited by the Department of Homeland Security appears to come from a report by the Center for Immigration Studies, which used the Census Bureau's current population survey. Researchers note that this survey has a much smaller sample size than the American Community Survey, leading to wider margins of error. Experts also warn that fear among immigrants may affect survey participation, further skewing results. The most recent robust data from the American Community Survey is from 2023, and researchers say more accurate estimates will only be available with future data releases.

How many undocumented immigrants have left the U.S. this year?

Homeland Security Secretary Christine Ohm claimed earlier this month that 1.6 million immigrants without legal status have left the U.S. since January. She said the drop was driven in part by the administration's ad campaign warning undocumented immigrants to leave or face arrest or deportation. But have that many people actually left? CBS News confirmed took a closer look at the data. Government data obtained by CBS News shows that 163,000 people had been deported or had self-deported in the first six months of this Trump administration. But this month, the Department of Homeland Security said 1.6 million people without legal status have left. So where did that number come from? A DHS spokesperson says it came from the department's own data. But its press release points to another source, a report by the Center for Immigration Studies, which analyzed the Census Bureau's current population survey to reach that 1.6 million figure. We asked some researchers who study population trends about this, and they told us it's too soon to know if this number is accurate. Here's why. Typically, researchers use a different census survey, the American Community Survey, to estimate the immigrant population. It polls 3.5 million households, far more than the current population survey, which polls 60,000 households. Researchers say the smaller sample size means wider margins of error when zooming in to focus on just the immigrant population. They also say some immigrants might be afraid to respond to the survey because of the current immigration crackdown, and that could also skew results. So to get the more accurate estimate, researchers say we'll need to wait for the American Community Survey. Right now, the latest figures we have from that survey are from 2023. A new Pew Research Center analysis of the American Community Survey tells us the total unauthorized population grew to a record 14 million that year. To see how the population has changed since then, researchers say we'll just need to wait for more robust survey data.

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Copenhagen

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Nuuk

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Starbase

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Tel Aviv-Yafo

Middle East Conflict

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Mason

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Council of the City of Sydney

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Kyiv

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Chicago

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Jerusalem

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Napa Valley

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Breakdown