Anubhuti Sahay, Head of India Economics Research at Standard Chartered Bank, says that there would be a muted impact on India's inflation trajectory if New Delhi chooses to move away from Russian oil imports. She explains that a hypothetical shift in fuel sources would instead have a bigger effect on India's current account deficit and fiscal balance.

Delhi

Experts indicate that the removal of Russian oil from India's import sources would have a limited effect on the country's inflation rate. While Russian oil has provided some savings, the current discount is not as substantial as market perceptions suggest. If India were to shift to more expensive oil sources, the headline consumer price index (CPI) would only be marginally affected, with a 10 percent increase in crude oil prices typically resulting in a 25 to 35 basis point rise in CPI.

The greater impact of losing access to discounted Russian oil would be seen in India's current account deficit, which could widen by $6 to $7 billion, and to a lesser extent, in fiscal revenue losses. However, these changes are not considered significant relative to India's overall trade deficit. The experts emphasize that global crude oil price movements would have a more pronounced effect on inflation than the specific source of India's oil imports.

How India’s inflation would move without cheap Russian oil

While you're here, and since you mentioned fuel, I do want to pick your brain as to how important this is for India. And that's because one of the big sticking points that's emerged in recent weeks with regards to U.S.-India trade talks has been the purchase of Russian fuel, which has kept fuel prices and energy security in India somewhat anchored because of the lower discounts you're getting from Russia. In a scenario where Russian oil is suddenly removed from the menu for India and you have to shift to other oil sources and maybe even more expensive oil sources, what kind of impact will that have on inflation, basically? How sensitive is inflation in India to a change in oil prices, especially if you're buying from a more expensive source? In usual circumstances, a 10 percent increase in crude oil prices has a negative impact of close to anywhere between 25 to 35 basis points on the headline CPI. Having said that, at this point in time, Indian consumers are already paying a retail fuel price which is closer to $85. Thus, even if the global crude oil prices move higher or if Russian oil is moved out, the impact on inflation trajectory will be very, very limited in our view. Probably the impact would be more on current account deficit and to some extent on fiscal balances. There is a very strong view in the market that Russian oil has saved India a significant amount of dollars. It has been saving, no doubt about it, but we don't think it is as large as the market perceives it to be. If today India shifts from Russian crude oil to, say, US, when Russia is on the lower end, US is at the higher end, the current account deficit will just widen by $6 to $7 billion in our view, which is not a very, very large amount given that India has a large trade deficit of almost $20 to $25 billion on a monthly basis. There will be some fiscal revenue losses, but at the end of the day, our sense is that today, the discount from Russian oil is limited. So, even if there is a shift, the impact should be more muted. The bigger impact would come if the global crude oil prices move rather than India just switching away from Russian oil to some other source of crude oil imports.

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Breakdown