Gold remains in focus as traders weigh the outlook for U.S. monetary policy ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole gathering. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points next month.

Recent analysis indicates that gold's price movement is closely tied to the US dollar, with a strong inverse correlation observed. While investment demand for gold remains robust, particularly from ETFs and central banks, jewelry demand has slowed due to elevated prices. The trajectory of gold demand, especially from ETFs, is expected to depend on future interest rate changes. Central bank buying, which increased following geopolitical events, may slow if stability returns, though such shifts are typically enduring.

In the copper market, US tariffs have played a significant role, with recent changes resulting in a well-stocked US copper supply and expectations of reduced imports. This extra US buying has contributed to global copper demand but is likely to ease. For iron ore and lithium, China's policy direction remains a key factor, with recent infrastructure announcements and policy support expected to influence these commodities.

Gower: Further upside in gold driven by falling USD

So some interesting commentary that we're getting from our MarketsLive team is that there's quite a few confluences of narratives that are in the backdrop of gold's price action right now. How are you assessing what we've seen over the past few days and weeks with the metal. Yeah I think it's it's not unusual after we've had a big move up in a commodity to see prices in a bit of a range. I think in terms of the key drivers at the moment it's really a lot of them. The move here to date really has been defined by the dollar. So very very strong inverse correlation there. And so I think the fact that the dollar has been the dollar index has been a bit more sideways probably explains why gold has been a bit more sideways. And then on the demand side as well. While we are seeing strong investment demands from bar bar demand from ETFs from central banks that jewelry demand is starting to get slower with these elevated prices. Do you see that potentially changing though with geopolitical developments. What is the trajectory in your opinion for where it goes next. Yeah I think for the ETF demand the most important thing is going to be what happens with the path of interest rates. We do see a strong relationship between as rates started to hike back in 2022. We started to see ETFs selling gold. And then as we started to get these first cuts last year that was the catalyst for ETFs to start coming back in. So I think that ETF portion which has been one of the newer drivers this year that's going to depend on the path of interest rate for perhaps some of that investor demand in bar and coin and then also central banks. There are questions around those geopolitical events. So a lot of the central bank buying really emerged only after the beginning of the Russia Ukraine conflict back in 2022. So if there was a resolution you could ask the question whether that would slow down a little bit. I would say this does look like a structural move. And what we tend to see with central banks is when they change their behavior it tends to be quite enduring. But perhaps we could see a bit of a slower pace of buying. And then for that bar and coin again perhaps a little bit coming out if we start to see things looking a bit more stable. But equally that jewelry demand could come back. And what we tend to find is jewelry purchases pause when when prices move very quickly. But as consumers adjust to the new level often those purchases do come back. So plenty of offsetting factors there. Amy let's move to another commodity copper. How much of what we are seeing with copper is being dominated by tariffs and by the narrative coming out of the U.S. administration. Yeah. So the U.S. copper benchmark came back. Copper price has been extremely dominated by by changes in tariffs. So we had had that price really outpacing other global benchmarks ahead of the expected implementation of 50 percent tariffs on all U.S. copper imports. And then of course when those were unwound most of that pricing out was done specifically in that benchmark. So a very big move lower. And now the only part that will be tariffed is the semi fabricated product. So things like copper wire copper broad. So quite a big turnaround versus what the market was expecting. And this is also has implications for the LME copper price. So the U.S. has been over buying copper for much of the last three four months since we started to hear that there might be copper tariffs. And so now the U.S. is very very well stocked with copper and arguably unnecessarily now that there won't be tariffs in place. So what we would expect from here is the U.S. copper imports to slow down. And that's been one of the big supports to demand here today. We could say even the extra U.S. buying has added around 2 percent to global copper demand. So that is a meaningful contribution that should start to ease off from here. And so hence why we're cautious here on the LME price. Amy let's just finish off on China because you do have some expectations for the Politburo meeting and potentially the impact of what we hear there on iron ore and lithium. What is it that you're paying attention to and how that could potentially affect those commodities. Yes. So I know it's always very dominated by China. China takes around 75 percent of global seaborne iron ore and therefore its policy and growth outlook has a very big impact. And we've already started to see that with announcements that we've had in recent weeks. So anti involution and steel supply discipline and then also starting to see some steps of positive policy direction whether that was the hydropower dam and a railway project announcement and then also those kind of traditional infrastructure. And so I think we'd want to see probably more of that say more debt and more support for those big infrastructure projects. And then also the support for the global economy.

Israel has intensified its assault on Gaza City, launching a new operation to seize it while planning the forced displacement of nearly one million Palestinians to southern zones.

Jerusalem

Middle East Conflict

Israel begins Gaza City operation

A New York appellate court threw out a $527 million penalty in the civil fraud case against President Trump and several others. CBS News' Aaron Navarro reports.

New York

Trump civil fraud case $527 million penalty thrown out

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Washington

Global Tariffs

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Israel says it began its military operation to take control of Gaza City. This comes after an apparent Hamas attack in Khan Younis targeting Israeli soldiers.

Israel says it began Gaza City expansion

After weeks of pushback from Democrats, House Republicans in Texas have passed controversial legislation to redraw the state's congressional map, giving the GOP an advantage in multiple seats.

Austin

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Moscow

Ukraine Invasion

Russia signals more talks needed before Zelenskyy-Putin meeting

The Texas House on Wednesday night passed a controversial, Republican-backed proposal to redraw the state's congressional maps. The bill now moves onto the Texas Senate. CBS News reporter Erica Brown has more.

Texas

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Israel's military has called up tens of thousands of reservists in preparation for an expected assault on Gaza City, as the Israeli government considered a new proposal for a ceasefire after nearly two years of war.

Israel calls up 60,000 reservists ahead of Gaza City operation

The Trump administration says it is adding 407 items to the list of "derivative" steel and aluminum products subject to higher tariffs. The list includes products like car parts, household appliances, baby strollers, fire extinguishers and spray deodorants.

Trump expanding steel and aluminum tariffs

NATO military chiefs met virtually Wednesday for what was described as a candid discussion about security guarantees the alliance would be willing to provide to Ukraine in an effort to end Russia's war in the region.

Brussels

NATO chiefs meet virtually about potential Ukraine security guarantees

Israel's military leaders approved the next phase of their ongoing offensive in the territory. The operation will shift focus to Gaza City, targeting areas where Hamas is believed to still be active and where Israeli forces have not yet operated.

Israel approves next phase of Gaza offensive, focus on Gaza City

Despite not making landfall, Hurricane Erin is forcing mandatory evacuation orders in parts of North Carolina and is expected to cause rip currents for days along the U.S. East Coast.

North Carolina

Hurricane Erin forces evacuations on U.S. East Coast

The White House says it is working to secure a meeting between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, which both have agreed to, while plans continue to create security guarantees for Ukraine.

Trump says no U.S. ground troops will be sent to Ukraine

Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire proposal for Gaza, but mediators are still waiting for an official response from Israel. CBS News contributor Robert Berger has the latest from Jerusalem.

Mediators await Israeli response to Gaza ceasefire proposal

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met China’s top diplomat on Tuesday and hailed the “steady progress” made in improving the bilateral relationship after a yearslong standoff between the nuclear-armed Asian powers.

New Delhi

India's Modi meets China's foreign minister to rebuild ties

Texas Democrats who ended a walkout found themselves shadowed by law enforcement officers to keep them from repeating the protest that stalled Republican efforts to redraw congressional districts and fulfill President Donald Trump's desire to reshape U.S. House maps.

Police escort Texas Democrats to prevent new redistricting walkout

Air Canada has reached a tentative agreement with the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB), ending the strike that began over the weekend involving 10,000 members and disrupted travel for more than 100,000 travelers per day.

Toronto

Air Canada reaches tentative agreement with flight attendant union

Exiled former Hong Kong lawmaker Ted Hui hailed Australia's grant of asylum status as a key acknowledgement of the territory's human rights infringements since its authorities quelled massive pro-democracy protests in 2019.

Hong Kong Island

Ex-Hong Kong lawmaker granted asylum by Australia

Forecasters are giving urgent warnings to millions of people who live along the East Coast as Hurricane Erin churns in the Atlantic. The storm will not make direct landfall but is expected to bring dangerous rip currents.

East Coast of the United States

Hurricane Erin to bring dangerous rip currents to U.S. East Coast

Jasveen Sangha, a Los Angeles woman known as the "Ketamine Queen," has agreed to plead guilty to federal charges in connection with the death of actor Matthew Perry. Sangha could face up to 45 years in prison.

Los Angeles

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European leaders who converged on the White House for talks on the Russia-Ukraine war demonstrated a united front regarding Ukraine's security on Monday, underscoring the issue as pivotal for the entire continent, not just Ukraine.

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La Paz

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Trump meeting with Zelenskiy, European leaders at White House

Hamas on Monday informed mediators that it had accepted a ceasefire deal proposal submitted to it the day before, according to international and Israeli outlets.

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Hurricane Erin will bring dangerously rough surf to parts of the U.S. East Coast. Over the weekend, Erin's outer bands lashed Puerto Rico with up to 7 inches of rain and flooding parts of the island.

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Kyiv

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Thousands of Israeli protesters demanded a deal to secure the release of hostages still held by Hamas in one of the biggest demonstrations since the war in Gaza began. Debora Patta reports.

Breakdown