Rising gold prices reflect growing uncertainty and risk in U.S. dollar and bond markets, says Sprott Asset Management CEO John Ciampaglia. Investors are weighing whether the metals’ rally is temporary or indicates a more permanent shift in financial markets.

Wall Street

Gold has recorded its best yearly performance since 1979, with its rising price reflecting significant uncertainty and risk in global markets. According to John Ciampagna, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, the move towards gold is driven by concerns over the U.S. dollar and U.S. treasuries, prompting both institutional and individual investors to substitute bonds with physical gold.

Central banks and institutions are increasing their gold holdings, often targeting allocations between five and fifteen percent, as part of a broader trend away from traditional reserve assets. Other precious metals, such as silver and platinum, are also seeing strong gains, with silver nearing its 2011 high and platinum breaking out of long-term trading ranges due to supply constraints.

Gold signals uncertainty around U.S. dollar and bonds

Silver's been a hot trade, too, up 67 percent this year, but to Josh Brown's point, today's silver finally passed its 2011 high, still hasn't gotten back to its all-time high set in 1980. So are metals just having some temporary shine or has something permanently changed? Joining us now is John Ciampagna, Sprott Asset Management CEO. Sprott has several ETFs focused on gold and silver. John, what do you say? Is it different now with gold? Is it going to double maybe again over the next three to five years? Yeah, well, gold is obviously having its best year since 1979, and what gold is doing this year is not typical. It is not designed to go up 50 percent a year, and even last year it was up about 25 percent and barely anybody noticed. And I think it's important to reflect on what signal the price of gold is sending the market, and it's basically a lot of uncertainty, a lot of risk, and some concerns about things like the dollar and U.S. treasuries and U.S. T-bills, which have obviously been the reserve asset for many decades. And whether it's foreign central banks or individual investors or institutions, there's clearly some substitution going on between treasuries and T-bills and gold, and it's not so much people leaving stocks. I think it's people replacing their typical allocations to bonds and instead going to fiscal gold. And, John, how much of this might come down to the difference between the way a Ray Dalio or a Jeffrey Gundlach invests and the way most people, even relatively high net worth people invest? I mean, it's bad for most people to get in and out of trades frequently or in large amounts. Dollar cost averaging, having a set strategy tends to make more sense. Is that part of what people should keep in mind when they're considering how much gold to hold and for how long? Yeah, I mean, we've been advocates for gold since it was $250 an ounce. So we've been, you know, kind of beating this drum for a long time. And our view is obviously it's the ballast in your portfolio. It helps you stay invested in other asset classes. It historically has been a safe haven currency alternative when things in markets become dislocated and obviously we're in a period where a number of different markets are unsettled. And so we always view it as a long term strategic holding. It really depends. Five to 15 percent, I think, is a reasonable amount for most investors. Obviously, we see central banks in the world moving their FX reserves to targets in that range, some even higher. And we think this is a part of a long term secular trend. And it's interesting that institutions are starting to mimic the central banks in terms of moving away from treasuries and T-bills to physical gold as as a safe haven investment. Yeah, we keep hearing about de-dollarization and also this idea of a debasement trade. To your point on how all this is fueling gold, I'm curious what you think of the moves we've seen not only in silver, which seems to be playing a catch up trade here, but also more recently platinum and even perhaps now palladium. Yeah, we've seen big moves in platinum breaking out a multi-year kind of trading ranges. It's very bullish. I think the platinum story is obviously more about shortage. We had very sub-economic prices for a very long time, did not encourage any kind of platinum mine development. These are very old mines and there's just a natural scarcity to these metals. Silver is obviously a bit of a hybrid metal being, you know, part monetary and part industrial in nature. And silver, as you mentioned at the beginning of the show, is finally starting to approach, you know, its recent high from 2011. We think silver is clearly in the midst of a catch up trade and we think it has a lot more room to go.

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