CNBC's Angelica Peebles joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the battle between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk over GLP-1 obesity pills.

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are set to compare their GLP-1 obesity pills in a head-to-head phase 3 clinical trial, aiming to determine which treatment is more effective. Lilly's pill, Orforglypron, was initially favored for its convenience, but recent trial results showed less weight loss than expected, prompting renewed interest in Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide. 

Industry analysts estimate that oral GLP-1 drugs could account for about 20% of the projected $80 billion obesity drug market in the coming years, though injectable versions are expected to remain the gold standard due to higher efficacy. Novo Nordisk is also seeking FDA approval to include cardiovascular benefits on its oral drug's label, which could further distinguish it from competitors.

GLP-1 obesity pills face off in head-to-head trial

Welcome back. The next battle shaping up between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk when it comes to GLP-1s, the pills. Angelica Peebles with the story. Angelica. Hey, Sarah. Well, that's right. Pills are the next frontier and it's changed a little bit over the last few months. So Lilly was getting all the attention here because its pill is easier to make and it's more convenient to take. But investors are now giving Novo a closer look after Lilly's pill produced less weight loss than hoped in a recent trial. So which pill is really better? Well, Lilly's top scientist says that we should get the results of a head-to-head study of Lilly's and Novo's pills in the coming months. We wouldn't have undertaken this head-to-head phase 3 randomized control trial unless we had a lot of confidence that Orforglypron would fare well in comparison to oral semaglutide. I do think that head-to-head trials are the standard in which drugs can be compared to each other. It's difficult to do these cross-trial comparisons and that's best avoided. Well, Novo, though, they are talking up the greater weight loss that they've seen and the lower discontinuation rates that they've seen in a trial of its pill. And the company's top scientist telling me in a separate interview that the data speak for themselves. But the broader question is just how many people will really want the pills when the shots are more effective. And analysts see orals capturing about 20% of the estimated $80 billion market for GLP-1 obesity drugs in 2030. That's according to Concession's estimates from Evaluate. But Lilly Skowronski says that predicting the market dynamics is actually harder than predicting the science. He thinks ultimately orals could become the primary way that obesity is treated around the world, guys. So what is the time frame here for when they can be just as effective as the shots? Well, I don't think we're going to see these pills become as effective as the shot. We're expecting them both to launch here in the U.S. next year. And Lilly, for example, they've said that Zepound is the gold standard. You see more than 20% weight loss and that's just because it's a more effective drug and they've never expected to see their pill be quite at that level. And so that's why they do actually think that the injection might be the gold standard for most people who want to lose a significant amount of weight. But they do think that there are millions of people out there who want that pill who might be okay with closer to 10% weight loss. And again, we'll have to see exactly how that all plays out when these drugs come to market. And some of the other health benefits, too, besides just weight loss, right? Yeah, exactly. And that's one thing that Novo has been talking a lot about because Wigovi is already approved for cardiovascular benefits and they're hoping that they might be able to have that on the label for their oral version. They're in talks with the FDA. That will be something that the FDA ultimately decides. But if they can get that on their label, they think that is something that could differentiate them from Lilly.

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