The CNBC-NRF Retail Monitor reported a 0.7% decrease in total retail sales, excluding autos and gas, for September. This marks the first monthly decline in three months, with seven out of twelve tracked categories experiencing drops.

The CNBC-NRF Retail Monitor reported a 0.7% decrease in total retail sales, excluding autos and gas, for September. This marks the first monthly decline in three months, with seven out of twelve tracked categories experiencing drops, particularly in furniture, restaurants and bars, and general merchandise. Electronics and appliances also saw their sixth consecutive monthly decline, though the rate of decrease has slowed.

Despite the monthly drop, year-over-year figures remain above the long-run average, suggesting underlying strength. The report attributes the pullback to consumer caution amid economic uncertainty and in anticipation of the holiday season. Ongoing concerns include a potential government shutdown, a soft jobs market, and possible future impacts from tariff-related price increases. Delays in government economic data releases are also expected if the shutdown continues.

Consumer spending falls in September, CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor finds

The CNBC-NRF Retail Report is out right now. Steve Leisman joins us with the numbers, and Steve, what's the news? Good morning, Becky. Consumers hit the pause button in September after two months of good gains, according to the CNBC-NRF Retail Monitor. Hopes are that it's a pause that refreshes ahead of this approaching holiday season. Never too early to start thinking about that. The monitor, which is powered by real credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions, dropping 0.7 percent for total retail sales, Ex-Auto, and gas. The first decline in three months. Take-out restaurants and the index falling 0.5 percent. Year-over-year, both lower, but at 5.4 and 5.7 remain strong and above the long-run average. So that's good. But for the month, there was both widespread and steep declines. Seven of the 12 categories fell, with one unchanged. The declines were led by furniture, restaurants and bars, and general merchandise. Electronics and appliances, they were lower. Their decline was lower. It's becoming shallower, but it's the sixth decline in a row in what could be continued payback from tariff front-running purchases. April was unusually strong, for example. Sporting goods, building and garden supplies and digital products, they led the upside sector, as you can see right there. NRF saying in their commentary, quote, amid continued economic uncertainty, consumers opted to preserve spending power in preparation for the important holiday season. Maybe some wishful thinking by the NRF may turn out to be right, but there remains much uncertainty about the holiday season, with a government shutdown, a soft jobs market, and the possibility that some tariff price increases have yet to be felt by consumers and could be there when they go to shopping, when they go to shop for the holiday season. Government was set to be published, the retail sales numbers, next Thursday. It looks likely to be among a slew of key data points, including the CPI, that will not appear, Becky. Steve, even if they reopen the government, everybody's talking about how October 15th is a real pressure point, because that's when employees, including the military, won't get paid. Even if they were to reopen ahead of that, how long does it take to get back up and running to get some of these data points out, to get them collected and collated? I mean, it just takes time. And I don't know how many days it takes, but it does take several days. We're also approaching, if we're not in right now, the survey week for the October jobs report. So we might be missing that come the first or the first Friday of November. So that's going to be a big hole, I think. I think they have the September data and probably the September report. So you could get that issued, and it may be the October report that we're missing. Significantly there, Becky, I think we've talked about this, the government job layoffs from Doge and other sources were probably going to show up in the October report. So we might get a sense of that. And when it comes to the economic impact of the shutdown, the idea that the furloughed workers won't get paid changes the game. If you notice a lot of the Wall Street forecasts that are out there, what they show is that we're going to have a GDP hit while the shutdown happens, 0.1 percent a week is some of the numbers I've heard. But then we get it back when people are paid. There is some loss, the permanent loss there, but that's mostly undone by the payback later. If that payback doesn't happen, then you have a larger permanent loss, and the impact on GDP and the economy will be more pronounced.

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