Coffee prices have been rising for more than a year amid poor harvests due to freak weather in producer countries. Instability in global coffee markets is adding to the woes.

Coffee prices have surged worldwide, with countries such as Germany experiencing a 43 percent increase in roasted coffee prices compared to the previous year. The rise is attributed to climate change impacts, including irregular rainfall, droughts, frost, and wildfires in major coffee-producing regions like Brazil, which lost a significant portion of its harvest. Trade dynamics have also shifted, with high US tariffs on Brazilian coffee leading to increased imports by Germany, now the largest importer of Brazilian coffee.

Experts highlight that the coffee plant's sensitivity to environmental changes threatens both yield and quality. While higher prices may benefit farmers, long-term solutions such as climate-resilient farming methods and agroforestry require significant investment and time. The future cost of coffee is expected to remain high as these challenges persist.

Coffee prices surge as climate and trade shake global supply

Coffee prices are shooting up globally. Each day, 3 billion cups of this morning beverage are consumed all over the world. In Germany, roasted coffee prices have gone up by 43 percent this year compared to last. Here at the Berliner Café Rosterei, their strategy is to stick with one price point for the year until that harvest lasts. We also don't compromise, as I said earlier. If we have a high purchase price, then we pass that price on. I won't try to lower the quality of the coffee in any way. Over the years, we've built up a customer base. We have a lot of regular customers, a lot of repeat buyers who trust us and trust this quality. This mid-sized roastery was founded 26 years ago and has secured raw coffee from various parts of the world, from Colombia to Yemen to Ethiopia. But what's behind the recent spikes in prices? Climate change makes itself known. When it should rain, it doesn't, and when we don't need rain, it rains a lot. Brazil also has a second problem that negatively impacts harvest. That's frost. That damages the plants. The forecast for the future is that prices could come down or stay stable at a new high. Climate change is a big reason for high prices. The coffee plant is sensitive, and changes to temperature or atmosphere could damage the taste. Brazil, the world's largest coffee exporter, lost one-fifth of its harvest to droughts, frost and wildfires. This sent global prices soaring. Venezuela is also the lead exporter of Arabica coffee, which is very popular all over the world. High US tariffs on Brazil means the US is importing less of Brazilian coffee and Germany has increased its imports, and is now the biggest importer of Brazilian coffee as of August this year. Europeans are heavy coffee drinkers. Finland and Luxembourg take top spots for the most coffee consumed in a country. I mean, coffee is one of the most, not only traded, but also consumed goods in the world. Now the prices are getting so high, unfortunately because of climate crisis, global trade wars, all these kind of elements, but we're now getting to the point that actually the price is so high that we can speak of the farmers being paid for what they should be paid for. Conditions in coffee-growing countries need to be studied and adapted to. Making the coffee process climate-resilient would help harvest. For example, by moving coffee fields higher up into colder temperatures. Or using agroforestry to integrate trees for shade and protection. A system which could buffer different types of shocks. So if there's a drought, if there's a heat wave, there might also be too much rain in a single event. And all this could happen and the system should be resilient. These solutions require big investments in infrastructure and could take years to complete. So the price of your morning cup is shaped by multiple factors. And in the future, this little cup will have an even bigger price tag.

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