CNBC's Robert Frank joins 'Squawk Box' with the latest news.

New York

A CNBC segment analyzed the potential impact of Zohran Mamdani's proposed tax increases on wealthy New Yorkers in the context of the upcoming mayoral election. The discussion highlighted contrasting studies on wealth migration, with some data showing the number of millionaire earners in New York has nearly doubled since 2010, while others note the state's share of national millionaires has declined.

Experts pointed out that the departure of even a single high earner can significantly affect tax revenues due to the progressive tax system, and that New York's real estate market increasingly caters to the wealthy, many of whom do not pay local taxes. The segment also raised concerns that political conflicts, particularly between Mamdani and Trump, could make New York collateral damage in national disputes, potentially threatening infrastructure funding and economic stability.

Zohran Mamdani's impact on the wealthy: Here's what to know

Time now for a look at how the New York City mayoral election could impact wealthy people in the Big Apple. The one and only Robert Frank, who knows more about this than just about anybody else, joins us right now. Andrew, great to see you guys. We've had some great discussions this morning, all about the question of wealth flight. Will the wealthy stay or go? And in fact, there are competing studies on recent wealth flight from New York. If you look at left-leaning groups, they point out that New York's population of millionaire earners, so those who earn a million dollars or more in income. That has nearly doubled since 2010, there are 34,000 New Yorkers making at least a million dollars or more. Now, while high earners did leave during COVID, of course, that out-migration was brief. The wealthy are now less likely to leave New York than middle-class or lower income New Yorkers. On the other side, conservative groups argue that while New York's millionaire population has increased, the growth lags far behind other states. New York's share of national millionaires has fallen from 13% to 9% since 2010, and the city's share has fallen from 7% to 4%. California, Florida, Texas all saw gains in those millionaire shares. Now the Citizens Budget Commission estimates that the underperformance for high earners in New York has cost the state $11 billion in annual tax revenue, $2.5 billion for New York City. Governor Kathy Hochul says she opposes Mondani's proposed tax increases on the wealthy New Yorkers because, quote, I don't want to lose any more people to Palm Beach, we've lost enough. Robert, was it you we were talking about with, oh, sorry, go ahead, Andrew. No, go ahead. I was just going to say, we were talking with someone the other day, and I think it might have been Robert, about what happened to New Jersey when David Tepper left. They had to redo the budget and cut the budget as a result of one person leaving the state. That's right. And if you look at New York, OK, it's the top 1% pay 40% of the taxes. But in the city and in the state, it's actually the top 200 pay something like 6% or 7%, and even within that group. We have 152 billionaires in New York City. And so you could say, OK, the lower income folks are four times more likely to leave New York than the wealthy. But if you have one person who makes a million dollars leave, you have to have 10 people who make $100,000 replace that person. And so that's the part where people say, well, the wealthy don't leave at the same rate as the lower income people, but they cost the tax base a lot more when they do leave. Because the marginal rate, you're not going to get. Because it's progressive. It's even more. Now, what does have to be said is that New York has become a place for the wealthy. And for everyone else, it's incredibly difficult to live here. And Joe, to your point all morning, it's the prescription for how to fix that. That's the issue. I mean, a lot of the real estate being sold in New York right now is for the wealthy that don't pay taxes here. This has become a seasonal resort town for the wealthy. And for everyone else, a $3,700 median rent is getting to be unsustainable. The one and only Robert Frank. Thank you, sir. Like a Petri dish. All right. We'll see how this works out. Yeah. Oh, we want to talk to you for a while. That's what they tell me. I don't know. Well, I would just point, the one other thing which we haven't talked about this morning, which I think is the most important impact from this election, is to what extent the fight between Mamdani and Trump makes New York collateral damage in that political battle. So, you know, we talked to Secretary Sean Duffy when he was here about the Gateway Bridge project being canceled. Duffy said, this is not political. They just going through the process. Besson yesterday to Andrew made the point that, well, we could cut off their infrastructure funding. So in addition to anything self-inflicted from having this guy as mayor, it could also cause Trump to even pile on and cause more. 100%. And that's where New York City becomes a victim. And that, I think, is the biggest economic risk to New York City from this election.

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