Across the Stoxx 600, analysts expect earnings and revenue to both decline on an annual basis, with earnings seen falling 0.2%, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data. If that projection is accurate, Q3 would mark the first period of earnings decline since the first quarter of 2024.

Brussels

Europe's earnings season is anticipated to be challenging, with analysts projecting a 0.2 percent decline in earnings across the pan-European STOXX 600 index. This would represent the first quarterly earnings drop since early 2024, a shift from previous expectations of growth. Sectors such as utilities, cyclical consumer, and basic materials are expected to be the hardest hit, while real estate, industrials, and financials may see modest gains.

Market experts note that while low expectations could allow some companies to outperform forecasts, high stock valuations leave little room for error, potentially increasing volatility. Key narratives this season include the impact of trade tariffs and the ability of companies to pass on costs, as well as the influence of artificial intelligence investments on corporate performance.

Winners and losers of Europe’s toughest earnings season since 2024

We're also counting down to Europe's earnings season with 11 stock 600 companies due to report this week. Now across the pan-european index analysts expect earnings and revenue to both decline on an annual basis with earnings seen falling 0.2 percent. This is according to LSEG data. This marks a significant decline from expectations for three percent earnings growth this quarter back in June. Now if those projections are accurate the third quarter would mark the first period of earnings decline since the first quarter of 2024. Now companies across the utilities cyclical consumer and basic material sectors are expected to be the worst performers this quarter. When it comes to consumer stocks they have seen a particularly steep drop in analyst expectations with growth of close to 15 percent forecast by analysts as recently as June. Meanwhile just three sectors are expected to see positive earnings growth. These include industrials financials and real estate which is seen leading the way with growth above five percent. And who best to discuss the upcoming earnings season than head of european equity strategy at Barclays. Emmanuel good to see you once again. I'll start by getting your thoughts exactly on what are your main expectations as we approach the european earnings season. Yeah good morning. Yeah look I think there is scope for for beats because this is the usual reset in expectations. As you said you know we are looking for the first spot of negative EPS growth in europe since q1 24. Even in the US if you look at non-tech earnings expectations have come down quite a bit. Meanwhile I think the macro setup was decent in q3 or at least not worse than expected after after the liberation day shock. You know we had PMI's going back up you know the US GDP no cluster in the US is growing at four percent. So I think there is scope for for beats. I think that the conundrum for the market is that obviously stocks have gone up quite a lot and valuations have done the heavy lifting. So you have this tug of war between on the one and pretty low estimates which you know give room for for beats in my view. But obviously you know that's partly expected and the market has been looking through the earnings noise recently looking for for better days ahead. So I suspect you know the stock that missed earnings will be punished as a little cushion left given the high valuation and you will get pretty much quite a bit of discussion I would say and volatility at the single stock level. Interesting. You know in the past in the at least in this 2025 so far some of the earnings season have been dominated by the trade tariffs and then the trade agreement between the EU and the US. What do you think will be the most important narrative from European corporates this quarter. I mean I think definitely as a tariff pass through will be will be a focus point. You know it was too early to really know for sure what was the implication of tariff on margins on pricing on consumer demand. A lot of companies talk about tariff as a source of uncertainty but not many could tell us what it meant for for earnings rights. I think for history we're going to be looking for for details for a bit more insight on what where those tariff heat and who is taking basically the heat. Is it the consumer margins. Is it both. And which sectors or which end markets are the most at risk and which one have pricing to offset the margins. So that's one thing I think the A.I. show me is a money thing. It's also quite important. You know it's been a big driver of market this year and a big source of polarization. So that's something market will be looking for as well in terms of who is starting to monetize investment and who is not able to do that yet.

The U.S. stock market rebounded on Monday (October 13) after President Trump appeared to walk back imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods.

Washington

Markets rebound after Trump softens tone on China tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump is heading back to the U.S. after his whirlwind trip to the Middle East, where he celebrated the first phase of a peace plan between Israel and Hamas.

Sharm El-Sheikh

Middle East Conflict

Trump, world leaders sign Gaza peace plan and discuss next steps

The government shutdown entered its third week on Monday as the Senate is set to reconvene on Tuesday. CBS News' Nikole Killion has more from Capitol Hill.

Shutdown drags into third week as Senate set to reconvene

U.S. President Donald Trump was greeted in Tel Aviv with cheers and a military ceremony as he met families of hostages held in Gaza and addressed Israel's parliament. He now travels to Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, to join world leaders in discussions on Gaza's future.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

Trump meets with Israeli leaders and hostage families

Twenty living hostages were released by Hamas after more than two years in captivity as a ceasefire continues to hold. Families in Israel describe emotional reunions while others continue to await confirmation about missing relatives.

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Israeli officials have confirmed that all 20 living captives have been released in Gaza.

Israel confirms all 20 living captives in Gaza have been released

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Donald Trump to co-host chair Gaza peace summit in Egypt

The French presidency announced Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's new cabinet line-up on Sunday (October 12), with most top jobs remaining unchanged at a time when opponents are demanding a political shift to win their support for urgent budget talks.

Paris

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Seven captives have been handed over to the Red Cross, who will facilitate their transfer to Israeli forces.

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On his way to the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters he expects the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to hold, despite concerns Hamas won’t abide by the deal.

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China on Sunday (October 12) called U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on Chinese goods hypocritical and defended its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products.

Beijing

Global Tariffs

Beijing blames U.S. for trade tensions, defends rare earth curbs

Afghanistan and Pakistan said they killed dozens of each other's troops during a night of heavy border clashes between the two countries. Afghanistan's Taliban forces launched attacks on Pakistani troops along their shared border in what it called "retaliation for air strikes carried out by the Pakistani army on Kabul".

Chaman

Border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan leave dozens dead

A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas held in Gaza for a third day ahead of the expected release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners and an address by U.S. President Donald Trump to Israel's parliament.

Ceasefire holds in Gaza ahead of hostage release, Trump visit

Zelenskyy called Trump for a second consecutive day to discuss defence and Ukraine's energy sector. It comes as Russia further intensifies its attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure ahead of its harsh winter.

Kyiv

Ukraine Invasion

Zelenskyy has second call with Trump amid Russian strikes

On Sunday, the minister of armed forces in Madagascar acknowledged an officer selected by a military group supporting demonstrators calling for President Andry Rajoelina to resign as the country's new army chief.

Antananarivo

Madagascar’s president says coup underway

With a trade war between the U.S. and China intensifying ahead of a Nov. 1 tariff deadline, there’s growing concern Beijing will use Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

Taipei City

Growing fear China will use Taiwan to bargain with U.S.

In a televised address ahead of the planned release of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for unity despite ongoing divisions.

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U.S. President Donald Trump blamed Democrats for his decision to lay off thousands of workers across the U.S. government as he followed through on his threat to cut the federal workforce during the government shutdown.

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Thousands gathered in Tel Aviv as 48 of the last remaining hostages are expected home after two years of the Israel-Hamas war. The crowd cheered Donald Trump as the peace deal's broker but there were jeers for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

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Diane Keaton, the Oscar-winning star of Annie Hall and The Godfather films, died Saturday at the age of 79, according to U.S. media reports. Entertainment journalist Johanna Schneller remembers Keaton as 'feisty and funny'.

Hollywood

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Former President Biden is now receiving radiation and hormone therapy to treat his prostate cancer, an aide said. The cancer is considered aggressive.

Biden receiving radiation, hormone therapy to treat aggressive cancer

It is unclear how many people were inside the Tennessee plant that exploded on Friday, but at least 16 people were reported on Saturday. Sheriff Chris Davis announced that there are no survivors. Nicole Valdes reports.

Tennessee

No survivors in Tennessee plant explosion, sheriff says

Thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters in London marked two years since the War in Gaza. However, the British government has seen enough. Haley Ott reports that police have been given sweeping powers to curb repeated demonstrations.

London

British Parliament designates Palestine Action a terrorist organization

Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff has addressed hundreds of thousands of Israelis in what's known as “Hostages Square” in Tel Aviv. Witkoff hailed President Donald Trump for securing the ceasefire. The crowd was less receptive to his praise for Benjamin Netanyahu.

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A ceasefire is in effect between Hamas and Israel after just over two years of war. An exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinians held prisoner is set to take place in the coming days, and U.S President Donald Trump is set to visit the region on Monday.

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The families of hostages taken by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023 are eagerly awaiting the return of their loved ones. The peace deal between Israel and Hamas would see the hostages returned within 72 hours of its implementation Friday.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he's had phone calls with Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump about defence and energy infrastructure. Russian strikes have led to widespread blackouts in Ukraine.

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Gaza City lies in devastation — returning Palestinians find their homes reduced to rubble and familiar streets erased. It comes after a U.S-brokered peace deal came into effect.

Sderot

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Breakdown