With the expected release of the remaining Israeli hostages, The National's Adrienne Arsenault asks world politics expert Janice Stein what the day after the hostage release could look like and how the world will know if the peace deal was a success.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

Following the release of hostages in Gaza, attention has shifted to the region's future governance and security. An international stabilization force is being discussed, with countries like Canada potentially contributing to a police force to help maintain order. The situation on the ground remains tense, with local clans and families vying for control in the absence of Hamas, while the group attempts to reassert its influence. 

Diplomatic efforts are underway, involving key regional and international actors, to prevent renewed conflict and ensure stability. Meanwhile, political divisions persist in Israel, with uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Netanyahu's future as the country approaches an election.

What happens after the hostage release, expert discusses

I suppose a big question now, when we think about Gaza, is what does the day after look like? Let's pay attention to the meeting in Cairo, which will also take place tomorrow. Two big issues will tell us a lot. The first, what is this international stabilization force gonna look like? How fast can the force get in and how fast can a police force get in? By the way, Canada may well contribute to that police force. Why does that matter? For two reasons. One, no further withdrawal is required of Israel until those forces go in. And Israel now still controls 50% of Gaza. The second, and you referred to this, Adrian, there is violence in Gaza. Some of the clans and families, longstanding Palestinian families in Gaza understand. They have a very short window if they do not want Hamas back. Hamas understands that too. And we saw some pictures today of Hamas firing on Palestinians. So I wanna pick apart some of what you said there. Let's start with that. The notion of these militias, gangs, armed families, whatever you wanna call them in Gaza right now, I mean, those are pretty threatening images. What does that suggest for the future of governance there? There is, I can only say, Adrian, all of struggle now between these families, clans, that have taken over parts of Gaza City and principally, but other areas as well. And when Hamas was unable to show itself on the streets, these families began to dig in and began to police and patrol. Hamas came back, not wearing its uniforms, but came back. And we, you know, these next 72 hours, Adrian, if these families can withstand the pressure from Hamas, that's one future. If Hamas is able to reestablish itself on the ground in these neighborhoods in Gaza City, then it's gonna be a much more difficult hill to climb, frankly. So you've got two- You know, Palestinian politics are made on the ground, Adrian, as you know. I was just about to say, you've got these two realities, right? You've got the one on the ground in Gaza and then not that far away in Sharm el-Sheikh in the Sinai, you have this other one. I'm trying to figure out that the Egyptian process, how does it not just stall? Because, you know- Well, it can't stall, Adrian. And it can't stall because President Trump is there. And I think it's not hard to imagine the kind of bouquets that are gonna be thrown at him for his leadership, and frankly, deserved, because he did put this together. But he's aware that if this breaks apart in 30 days, there will not be much credit coming to him. So he's got a way, and he agreed to chair this board. He's trapped. He trapped himself in this, Adrian. And he's got his finger on the scale now. So that's one. Secondly, the Egyptians, the Qataris, the Saudis, the Emiratis. This is, there are a lot of people from outside, our Prime Minister, Prime Minister Starmer, France, Germany, but the key players are the Arab players from the Arab world. They do not want to see this war start again. And ironically, Israel doesn't want to see the war start again right now. Okay, let's- That's the- I just have a little bit of time left, Janet. And Janet, I want to ask you about Israel. It won't be at those meetings of Sharm el-Sheikh, right? We saw the crowd booing, the mere mention of Netanyahu last night. What's the political future there? Wow. This is a really divided country. Divisions are covered over during a war, but barely, frankly. The election's coming. Any seasoned political analyst, Adrian would tell you he's finished. But everybody has said that about Netanyahu. Not nine times, but 19 times. And they've been wrong. He will try to claim this as a huge victory. My instinct is the public knows better. Those who support him will support him. But people know this war was prolonged and that he resisted this as long as he could. All right. Once again, Janice, thank you.

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