In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at the snowstorm risk for the Northeast late next week.

Northeastern United States

Meteorologists are closely watching weather patterns that could bring a significant snowstorm to the U.S. East Coast late next week. Two main timeframes are being monitored: Thursday into Friday and Sunday into Monday, with forecast models showing the potential for either event to bring snow to major cities such as Washington, D.C., New York City, Philadelphia, and Boston.

The outcome depends on the alignment of atmospheric features, particularly the position of the jet stream and trough axis. While some models suggest storms could remain just offshore, others indicate snow could reach the coast. The situation remains uncertain, and forecasters emphasize the need to monitor updates as the pattern is favorable for a snowstorm but not guaranteed.

Weather pattern sets stage for potential East Coast snowstorm

The potential for an East Coast snowstorm is there. Late next week, there's actually two possibilities, either one hits or they both miss. You're not going to get two of them, but you can get one, and I'm telling you right now, Thursday into Friday, the first chance is razor close to being a big East Coast snowstorm, but it could also be offshore. Now, I drew this earlier this week at the urging of Joe Lumberg, the Crystal Ball, and Paul Pastelok, and this is the graphic, this is the pattern, this is the classic way. You get a dip in the jet stream coming in across the Midwest. Now, depending on where that sets up, you're going to get a storm to form, and it's always the million-dollar question, does the storm go out to sea or a track like this, and you get a miss, and you get a limited snow, or does it get guided up the coast, and on the Northwest side, you end up getting a snowstorm because there's an injection of cold air on the backside of the storm. It's not Arctic air, but it is cold enough to snow. Now, as we do on the feed, the whole reason for the feed is I want to show you the modeling that I'm looking at, and I want you to get in my head and see what I'm looking at here. Scary situation to always get in my head, but let's talk about it. I want to show you this. This is the pattern, remember? Here's your dip in the jet stream. Now, here's the key. For an East Coast snowstorm, you've got to get this Southern energy to run out of the Northern piece, and the trough axis has to at least be what I call neutral. That is, the trough axis is far enough West, and it's like this. This would be a neutral trough axis because then you would get Southerly flow, and you would guide the storm up the coast. Now, if you really want a storm, you need to be more of a negative trough axis, and that would be like this, like this. Axis is like this, and you get more of a South to Southeasterly steering flow, and that definitely brings it up the coast. Now, I want to show you what's going on. Here's the European and the GFS. The first shot is Thursday into Friday. Watch the trough axis. Come on. Here we go. Thursday into Friday. Let me stop at Friday evening. Boy, this is close, because what you have is, number one, look at this energy coming down here. This is getting out ahead of the Northern piece. You see how the Northern piece is back across the lake? Now, the trough axis on the European is, it's close. It's not quite, it's close to being neutral. Watch. Right there, it starts to go negative a little bit, right in there, but because you have another piece of energy coming on down, it moves this Southern piece instead of up the coast like this. Watch where it goes. It goes more like this. Watch it. Right here. Here's the key move. Key move on the European. Thursday into Thursday. Right there. See how it goes offshore? It's razor thin, though, and close, because when you look at the surface map on the European, watch where the storm forms. See that push to the east of that energy Thursday night keeps the storm just offshore, but look how close it is. I mean, that's razor close for a snowstorm. For Philadelphia, New York City, Washington, D.C., and up into New England. Razor close. Now, let's look at the GFS. Little different here. Here's the European. I'm gonna stop this. There it is, Friday. Thursday night. That's the European. Look at the GFS. Now, big difference. Small differences make big, big differences in the surface. You see how this energy is back here? That's the European. You see the Northern piece? See where it is? Watch the GFS. No, it's here, and it's cut off. And look at the trough axis. What do we got? Neutral. So now we have a southerly wind aloft. Take a look at Friday morning. European. GFS. It is a negatively tilted trough, and what that does is what surface flow we have is gonna be driven back. So let's take a look at the surface map. On the American model, which by the way, I'm less of a believer in typically. Surface map. This is Europe. Watch the American model. Here comes your storm. Here it comes. Watch it storm. Now watch. It is coming back. Look at the snow. This is all snow. Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and DC, you're on the back edge of it. That's the GFS. Look at it go. It's still a little offshore, but it is close. That's the first time frame Thursday into Friday. Now, the reason why we may miss it along the East Coast is you've got this energy in here. What that is doing, and the European shows this as well, see, it kicks this energy instead of coming up. I think it just kicks it just enough offshore that there would be a glancing blow from eastern New England all the way down toward New York City and Philadelphia, but it's really close. I mean, razor thin. So we've got to keep an eye on this Thursday into Friday. It's close. The potential's there. Now, European is a little interesting because I talked about this a couple days ago, that if the European showed a possibility, then if this missed, there'd be another possibility. Well, here we go. Thursday morning, Thursday afternoon. So Thursday morning, Friday morning, this piece just misses, but look at what's going on here. Now, this is the reason why the storm gets pushed out to sea, because you've got additional energy. But look what this does on the European. The GFS doesn't show it, but look what this does. Friday morning, Saturday afternoon, Sunday morning. So look at that. Big trough coming in here. This would be Sunday night into Monday. Surface map. There's your snowstorm. Washington, D.C. Close call New York City. I think it's snow, but it could be rain, but look at that. Right up in New England. A very intriguing setup for late next week. Two possibilities. Thursday into Friday, Sunday into Monday. You're not going to get both. You're going to get either one of them hits, or they both miss. That's the way I see it. But the key is, is this. The weather pattern. It's ripe for an East Coast snowstorm. The potential's there. Let's see if it hits. And that's the feed.

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