As Trump vows to take control of Venezuela's vast oil reserves, is the move really about crude — or about curbing China and Russia? And what could it mean for global energy markets? Independent energy analyst Mikhail Krutikhin explains.

Washington

An independent energy analyst has highlighted significant challenges to US efforts to increase oil production in Venezuela. Venezuela currently produces less than 1% of the world's oil, and restoring its output would require $15-20 billion in investment and advanced technology, particularly to process its heavy, viscous crude.

The analyst noted that existing Russian and Chinese investments in Venezuela's oil sector complicate US involvement, and that global oil prices are currently depressed due to oversupply. Experts estimate it could take five to ten years to restore Venezuelan production to previous levels, and banks may be reluctant to finance new projects if oil prices remain low.

Trump's Venezuela oil gambit: Constraints and global impact

Let's get more detail on that. We can now turn to Mikhail Krutyshin. He is an independent energy analyst based in Oslo. What do you think that the U.S. aims to achieve with regard to oil in Venezuela? Well, there will be no immediate effect because Venezuela produces less than 1 percent of global oil. And there is a very big problem with restoring the great level of production, because according to Wood Mackenzie, it will take between $15 and $20 billion to increase its production by half a million barrels per day. So it's a very long-term investment. And there is another problem. If American companies come to Venezuela to launch oil projects, they will have to replace Russian and Chinese interests in this country. Russia has invested over $17 billion, and the Chinese companies over $20 billion in the oil industry of Venezuela. And I don't think they will be very happy to see their investments lost. Certainly so many global power dynamics at play here. Can you walk us through what is so unique, in particular, about the country's reserves? Well, the oil in Venezuela is mostly very thick and viscous, and it cannot go into pipes or tankers because it refuses to flow. So to produce that and to make it, well, deliverable, the country needs to import some solvents, such as naphtha or, well, other chemical solvents. And without new technologies, advanced technologies which can be produced by American companies, and without the influx of those solvents, Venezuelan oil is not going to reach the market. So then, therefore, give us a sense, because, I mean, we understand that Venezuela's oil production is less than one million barrels per day. What would it indeed take to accelerate extraction? What could the U.S. role be here? Yes, it will be new technologies to extract this thick and viscous oil, heavy sorts of oil, and it will take to renovate the infrastructure of the industry. And according to international experts, it will take between five and ten years to recover it to the level of 1998, when Venezuela was producing over four million barrels per day. What more, excuse me, what would more oil coming from Venezuela mean for the global market? I mean, what would it mean for Russia's position in energy trade, for example? Well, it will take quite a lot of years to recover the level of production that Venezuela used to enjoy in the past. And so I do not think that the changes in the structure of oil companies, Chinese, Russian, American companies in Venezuela, are going to affect the global influx of oil, global supply of oil. So right now we see that the changes have not, the price of oil has not been affected by the events in Venezuela. And I do not think it is going to be felt for another five, maybe ten years. Tell us a little bit more about global supply of oil, because there are some experts that say that the world does not need more oil on the market. What's your opinion? Yes. We see now that the excess oil which is being produced is about maybe four million barrels per day. So some of that oil is being absorbed by China, which is building and refueling its storage capacities. But the excessive oil on the market is depressing the prices. And the general trend for the prices is going down. So between May 2022, when the price of one barrel was $120, and today when the price of the same barrel is about $60, is the general trend. And it is another problem which is going to plague the Venezuelan oil industry. If the banks believe that the price of oil is going to go down, they are not going to finance the investments of American oil companies in Venezuela, because if the price is below production costs, they are not going to get any profit from such loans and credits. Mikhail Kotyshin, thank you so much. We appreciate it. Thank you.

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