AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva provides the latest update on the tropics and potential storm development as we move through the end of July and head into August.

Meteorologists are monitoring two areas in the Atlantic for potential tropical development, though both currently present a low risk. One area, located far out in the Atlantic, is being watched as tropical waves begin to move westward from Africa, with environmental conditions slowly becoming more favorable for development. Closer to home, a system in the western Gulf is unlikely to develop but may bring locally heavy rainfall to the northern Gulf Coast.

In the Pacific, increased activity is noted, particularly off the west coast of Mexico and near Hawaii. The system near Mexico is expected to develop but poses no threat to land, while the system south of Hawaii could increase trade winds across the islands. Although this is not expected to repeat past severe events, the heightened winds may raise concerns about the spread of brush fires due to ongoing drought conditions.

Tropical development potential heading into August

we've been focusing in on a couple areas here across the Atlantic. We'll take a closer look at some of our risk areas for today. Yeah, well, highlighting two areas right now of low risk of tropical development here over the next week or so. One area is way out in the Atlantic. Uh, it's that time of the year where we're starting to watch those tropical waves come off of Africa and make their way westward across the Atlantic. So we're highlighting an area out here July 30th to August 2nd. The wave hasn't even come off of Africa yet. But again, you know, conditions are starting to get a little bit more conducive for development in the middle of the tropical Atlantic. The wind shear slowly coming down and that some of that African dry air and dust has slowly been decreasing. So we really have to start turning our attention out towards Africa and watching those tropical waves. And then the other area that we're watching, you know, part of this homegrown development that we've been talking about over the last, you know, couple of weeks here, it's got a really low chance running out of time in the western gulf here close to home, much similar to the one we saw last week. But you know, this one I really don't think has a very good chance of developing. You can see it here on the infrared does not look all that organized right now, really running out of time here to try to get its act together. But it is going to be bringing some pretty heavy rainfall, at least locally heavy rainfall throughout the day today across the northern gulf coast and western portions of the gulf as well. So watch out for some heavy downpours throughout the day today. I don't think everybody sees, you know, flash flooding, but there can be some locally heavy downpours where we could see a couple of inches of rain where those downpours tend to move very slowly or sit over the same areas. Well, Alex, I mean, if the Atlantic not much is going on, our eyes kind of draw to the pacific where that's where things are kind of getting a little bit more exciting in the sense of more activity. Yeah, well, first I'll start off with the area off the west coast of Mexico here. The orange area that we have that we have highlighted on the right side of your screen here. No threat to land with this one. This one is going to develop probably and then just move away. So that one, no problems there. The one closer to Hawaii is a little bit interesting. It doesn't look like there's going to be a direct impact to Hawaii. But if we take a look at the satellite, you can see that it's trying to get its act together here on very well could develop here over the next day or so again, we're expecting this to go well south of Hawaii. But what it can do is it can help to increase the pressure gradient a little bit across Hawaii. We have a big area of high pressure to the north. And so we're expecting that the trade winds next week are going to be increasing across the Hawaiian islands. Now, this is not a repeat of a couple of years ago in Maui in 2023 with Dora coming to the south. This is not going to be a repeat of that because the high pressure is not nearly as strong as what it was a couple of years ago, and it's not in the exact same spot. But nevertheless, there can be some trade wind increases and gusty winds on with the state being in a large majority being in drought conditions right now. We are concerned that throughout next week, um, you know, any any fires, any brush fires that may start can have the potential to spread due to those increased winds. All right, we appreciate you helping us break it down here and help to put that into perspective with previous events. Accurate, the lead hurricane expert Alex De Silva. We appreciate you here and accurate early.

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