AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva discuss where any potential tropical storms could form in the final days of July and first days of August.

Meteorologists report that tropical activity remains relatively quiet, which is typical for this time of year. Early in the month, development tends to occur closer to home, such as the Gulf or off the Southeast coast, while later in the month attention shifts to the tropical Atlantic. 

A recent burst of thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico showed little chance of developing further due to surrounding dry air and low wind shear. Another tropical wave off the West Coast of Africa is being monitored, but it faces significant dry air as it moves across the Atlantic, keeping its development chances low. Additionally, a boundary off the Southeast coast may bring some activity, but any potential system is expected to move away from the United States. In Hawaii, gusty trade winds are forecast, raising wildfire risk, but the setup differs from past severe events.

Tropical development possible near Southeast coast

Alex thinks pretty quiet in the tropics right now, which they typically are this time of the year, but you always have to stay on guard. And what I find interesting is that when you look at the July breeding grounds, you kind of see early in the month homegrown development, and then by the end of the month, you start looking out in the tropical Atlantic a little bit. Yeah, if we were to split the month up in half, the first half of the month, like you just said, would be much closer to home. A lot of times we look for those stalled fronts, you know, close to home in the Gulf or off the Southeast coast. But as you get more into the second half of the month, that's when we start to open up the Eastern Caribbean or even a little bit further out into the Atlantic. And we do have some areas highlighted in those areas. Little area was interesting coming in this morning, that blow up of our showers and thunderstorms or the clouds that you see north of Puerto Rico. You know what though, that's starting, it's in an area surrounded by dry air, but low wind shear, we don't think much happens with that. Yeah, I don't think so. We highlighted the area this morning because it had a really big blow up of convection there this morning. And it was sustained for a fairly good period of time. There was a chance that if that convection could stay sustained, that maybe you could get a low pressure to form there. It really didn't happen. So I think the chances of that developing are near zero. Either way, it's moving away from the U.S. And you could see it's just surrounded by dry air. It was the light wind shear that helped sustain it. When you look at the water vapor loop, you can see why it's very difficult during the month of July. Not impossible like we saw with Barrow last year, where any tropical waves coming out of the Atlantic, they have to overcome what I call a hostile condition, dry air and wind shear. Yeah, a lot of this orange and yellow that you're seeing on the screen is a lot of that's African dust that's actually coming across the Atlantic. And essentially that really just chokes out a lot of these tropical waves that try to develop early in the hurricane season. But typically as we move into the month of August and certainly into September, that dry air really decreases and that can really open the door for stuff to develop. And you can see clusters of thunderstorms now off the West Coast of Africa, Alex. Yeah, we're starting to watch the next tropical wave come across. Pretty robust wave right now, but we'll have to track it across the Atlantic. It's gotta get through all of this dry air. Right now we have a low chance of developing, not a lot of wind shear, but it's mainly the dry air that it's gonna have to contend with. You can see those really light pink colors on that screen really indicating the low wind shear. But the time to watch this will be July 30th to August 2nd as it comes across the Atlantic. Then it probably moves north of the Lesser Antilles towards the Turks and Caicos. We'll still have to track it there. You were mentioning boundaries and upper lows that come south for homegrown development. There is gonna be a boundary off the Southeast Coast, middle part of next week. Yeah, that's been the story. A lot of these fronts coming across the Southeast, stalling, trying to get a little bit of spin going. We saw that with Chantal, but unlike Chantal, I think if something develops here, it would be moving away from the United States. Really quickly, some gusty winds in Hawaii. That's something that we've been sounding the alarm on. Yeah, and this is not going to be the same type of setup that we saw two years ago that helped to contribute to the Maui wildfires. It's a totally different setup, but on a weaker scale. So expect the trade winds to really start to increase Monday night into Tuesday in Hawaii and go throughout the rest of the week and into the weekend as we have a tropical storm to the south and high pressure to the north. So there is a wildfire risk, but this is not the same type of setup that we saw two years ago. AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva. Alex, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

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