In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno breaks down the latest on the tropics.

Meteorologists are closely monitoring a weather system, referred to as 'the wave to watch,' located unusually far south in the Atlantic. The system's development is hindered by its proximity to the equator, which limits the Coriolis effect needed for storm rotation, and by potential interaction with South America, which could disrupt its structure.

Forecast models from the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom generally agree that the system will remain far south as it progresses. Wind shear and land interaction are expected to weaken the system, but if it survives, it could encounter favorable conditions—such as low wind shear and warm waters—south of Hispaniola. This could allow the system to intensify and potentially threaten areas along the east coast of the United States or Central America, depending on future atmospheric patterns.

Tracking "the wave to watch"

Is there anything left of it? That's what I'm going to try to answer for you here on the feed today. Let me show you the satellite picture. Okay, you can see it pretty here. This is Lorenzo. Look how far north this is. This is 20 degrees north. What I really should say is look how far south this is. This is 10 degrees north. Now, lots of times when these systems are so far south, there's less what we call Coriolis effect. This occurs because of the spinning of the globe. So, the farther you get away from the equator, the more spin there is from the Coriolis effect, the closer to the equator there's less. So, sometimes when these storms are this far south, it's hard to get it to spin up. The other problem with a system this far south, eventually, it has this roadblock called South America. The question is, as it gets that far west, will it interact with South America? And if it does, there may not be much left of it here. Let me show it. That's what it looks like. Let me show you this too. When I talk about the hurricane season so far, these are the storms that we've had here. And you'll notice this, everything, and I mean everything, has been in the Atlantic. We've had zero, and I mean zero storms here in the Caribbean, only one in the Gulf. So, so far, everything has been into the Atlantic. There's only been one landfall in the United States. That was Chantal, though we've had other hybrid systems moving across the Carolina. One system, in particular, dropped a lot of rain, southeast Virginia, but technically no landfalling storms. So, right now, I think the epicenter of the hurricane season has been the Carolina coast, especially the Outer Banks, because of all the damage we've had from the surge. All right, let's talk about this really quick. I want to go back to this graphic quick, so you see the timing of this system. So, as we move forward, it'll start approaching the islands early next week. Okay, so I keep on talking about what's left of it. All right, what is left of this storm that comes eastward, and there's a reason for that here. I have the one graphic here. I want to show you the wind shear across the islands, and what this system has to get through as we move forward. Now, this is the wind speed at around 40,000 feet. Where you see the dark colors, this is wind shear. This system is going to be tracking roughly in this direction as we move forward here. Now, let me go back. This is as we get into Saturday here. So, this system is going to be right around in here. You'll notice that there's some wind shear impacting this as it moves. So, it'll be right around in here. There's some wind shear, not a lot. Now, as we head into early next week, this system is going to be approaching this area right here near the islands. There's some west-northwest wind shear here, and the other problem is it could be close to South America. So, those are the challenges that this system is going to face, and what I want to show you is here's some more modeling showing you where this system is going to move here, and I want to show you right now. Let's go ahead to Saturday. This is the American model. Look at where it is. Pretty far south. You see all that red? That's the American model. How about the European model? Pretty much the same area. You see that little red area? And then this is the UK meta, British model, right in here. So, they all have it pretty far south by Sunday. How about Monday? All right. Here's the American model. This is my concern with this system. All of the modeling shows this. That's the American. Look at the European. Pretty far south. Look at the UK meta. They all have it in this zone. That's awfully far south, and that's why I think this system between the shear and it getting very close to the South American continent early next week, this could be shredded away and there won't be anything left of it. That is a possibility. However, here's the concern. All modeling are showing this. Here comes, look at the American model showing this area of increasing red here south of Hispaniola. How about the European? Same thing. Little area. In fact, as we go forward here, look out at the European. Continues to show this getting just south. There it is. South of Hispaniola. When? Late next week. There's the European model. Here's the American model. They have it as a hurricane, but they all have it surviving into this zone. Okay. Based on that, we're always talking about wind shear. What does the wind shear look like in this area during that time? So we're talking about Thursday of next week. What does it look like? Take a look at it. So it's going to be right in here. All of the modeling show that it's right in here. Look at this. And what's going on in this area late next week? A big upper high. And underneath upper highs, what do you get? Low wind shear. And then take a look at this. Look, and we've been showing this every day now. Look at this warm water. Located where? Right in here with low wind shear. If this survives, if this survives, I'm concerned it can go fast and go very fast. What would happen after that then? Well, it all depends on this dip in the jet stream that we're going to be looking at off the east coast. This dip in the jet stream, this could take it right toward the east coast of the United States, 10 to 14 days from now. Now, if it misses this connection, it goes into Central America. But I'm telling you, if this survives, look out from Florida along the east coast. And that's the feed.

President Trump confirmed that he has authorised the CIA to go into Venezuela and conduct covert operations.

Washington

Trump says he authorised covert CIA operations in Venezuela

Hamas is back on the streets of Gaza in an attempt, it says, to restore law and order -- and to send a message.

Tel Aviv-Yafo

Hamas executes Palestinians accused of collaborating with Israel

A federal judge in Oregon has extended temporary restraining orders that block the Trump administration from deploying National Guard troops to Portland. Meanwhile, federal agents in Chicago used tear gas to disperse a crowd after a car chase ended in a crash.

Chicago

Federal agents deploy tear gas in Chicago despite court order

A federal judge on Wednesday temporarily ordered the Trump administration to halt the firing of workers during the government shutdown.

Judge temporarily blocks Trump from firing workers during shutdown

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is traveling to the U.S. to meet with President Trump. The two leaders are expected to discuss the possibility of the U.S. supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles.

Ukraine Invasion

Trump to meet with Zelenskyy about long-range missiles

The U.S. military struck a fifth apparent Venezuelan boat allegedly carrying drugs, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media Tuesday. CBS News' Natalie Brand has more details.

Caracas

Trump says U.S. struck another alleged Venezuelan boat

News organizations including The New York Times, The Associated Press and Newsmax as well as ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and Fox News say they will not sign new press rules as laid out in a Defense Department document. This could mean the Trump administration will evict reporters from the Pentagon.

Major U.S. news media outlets refusing to sign new Pentagon rules

Madagascar’s president ousted in a military takeover — Youth-led protests and parliament’s impeachment vote spark political turmoil.

Antananarivo

Madagascar's military seizes power, president ousted

Thousands of messages shared in a group chat of Young Republicans are revealing some racist thoughts that even they worried about being leaked. The exchanges obtained by Politico are part of a Telegram chat among Young Republican leaders in New York, Kansas, Arizona and Vermont. Jason Beeferman, New York state politics reporter for Politico, joins with more.

Politico exposes racist messages sent by Young Republican leaders

The U.S. stock market rebounded on Monday (October 13) after President Trump appeared to walk back imposing new tariffs on Chinese goods.

Markets rebound after Trump softens tone on China tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump is heading back to the U.S. after his whirlwind trip to the Middle East, where he celebrated the first phase of a peace plan between Israel and Hamas.

Sharm El-Sheikh

Middle East Conflict

Trump, world leaders sign Gaza peace plan and discuss next steps

The government shutdown entered its third week on Monday as the Senate is set to reconvene on Tuesday. CBS News' Nikole Killion has more from Capitol Hill.

Shutdown drags into third week as Senate set to reconvene

U.S. President Donald Trump was greeted in Tel Aviv with cheers and a military ceremony as he met families of hostages held in Gaza and addressed Israel's parliament. He now travels to Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, to join world leaders in discussions on Gaza's future.

Trump meets with Israeli leaders and hostage families

Twenty living hostages were released by Hamas after more than two years in captivity as a ceasefire continues to hold. Families in Israel describe emotional reunions while others continue to await confirmation about missing relatives.

Families reunite as ceasefire brings hostages, prisoners home

Israeli officials have confirmed that all 20 living captives have been released in Gaza.

Israel confirms all 20 living captives in Gaza have been released

The carefully choreographed Israel-Hamas exchange is underway, with Israel set to release around 2,000 Palestinian prisoners following the release of remaining hostages held in Gaza. Noga Tarnopolsky reports from Tel Aviv’s Hostage Square.

Israel-Hamas swap begins as 2,000 Palestinian prisoners set for release

Following his visit to Israel, President Trump will stop in Egypt to co-host a major summit in Sharm el-Sheikh alongside Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi. The meeting will bring together leaders from more than 20 countries to discuss efforts toward peace in Gaza and the wider Middle East.

Donald Trump to co-host chair Gaza peace summit in Egypt

The French presidency announced Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's new cabinet line-up on Sunday (October 12), with most top jobs remaining unchanged at a time when opponents are demanding a political shift to win their support for urgent budget talks.

Paris

French presidency unveils new cabinet as budget pressure intensifies

Seven captives have been handed over to the Red Cross, who will facilitate their transfer to Israeli forces.

Israeli military says Red Cross has received 7 captives in Gaza

On his way to the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters he expects the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to hold, despite concerns Hamas won’t abide by the deal.

Trump says the 'war is over', Gaza rebuild to start immediately

China on Sunday (October 12) called U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on Chinese goods hypocritical and defended its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products.

Beijing

Global Tariffs

Beijing blames U.S. for trade tensions, defends rare earth curbs

Afghanistan and Pakistan said they killed dozens of each other's troops during a night of heavy border clashes between the two countries. Afghanistan's Taliban forces launched attacks on Pakistani troops along their shared border in what it called "retaliation for air strikes carried out by the Pakistani army on Kabul".

Chaman

Border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan leave dozens dead

A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas held in Gaza for a third day ahead of the expected release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners and an address by U.S. President Donald Trump to Israel's parliament.

Ceasefire holds in Gaza ahead of hostage release, Trump visit

Zelenskyy called Trump for a second consecutive day to discuss defence and Ukraine's energy sector. It comes as Russia further intensifies its attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure ahead of its harsh winter.

Kyiv

Zelenskyy has second call with Trump amid Russian strikes

On Sunday, the minister of armed forces in Madagascar acknowledged an officer selected by a military group supporting demonstrators calling for President Andry Rajoelina to resign as the country's new army chief.

Madagascar’s president says coup underway

With a trade war between the U.S. and China intensifying ahead of a Nov. 1 tariff deadline, there’s growing concern Beijing will use Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

Taipei City

Growing fear China will use Taiwan to bargain with U.S.

In a televised address ahead of the planned release of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for unity despite ongoing divisions.

Netanyahu urges Israel put aside ‘differences’ with Gaza

U.S. President Donald Trump blamed Democrats for his decision to lay off thousands of workers across the U.S. government as he followed through on his threat to cut the federal workforce during the government shutdown.

Trump lays off thousands of U.S. government workers amid shutdown

Thousands gathered in Tel Aviv as 48 of the last remaining hostages are expected home after two years of the Israel-Hamas war. The crowd cheered Donald Trump as the peace deal's broker but there were jeers for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Tel Aviv braces for hostage release planned for Monday

Diane Keaton, the Oscar-winning star of Annie Hall and The Godfather films, died Saturday at the age of 79, according to U.S. media reports. Entertainment journalist Johanna Schneller remembers Keaton as 'feisty and funny'.

Breakdown